Race 1 - 11:45AM Without Fear Stakes Tips (Formerly Queen Adelaide Stakes) (1050 METRES)
The Busuttin & Young stable cross the border with 5. SEE YOU IN SPRING who looked your typical jump and run two-year-old when saluting on debut at Cranbourne, running good time for that meeting, relative to the class. Tough race and I suspect at least a few of these will go past her in time, but she's the one with the runs on the board that will make her own luck.
3. Silent Theory was tardy away in a Benalla trial, but recovered for a soft win, a trait that was again present in a Flemington jump-out on April 9, but he did recover to take out that heat. He jumped cleanly in his most recent hit-out on April 26, where another win was recorded.
6. Ballynora will get better as the distances increase a little more. She did catch the eye late over this track/trip on debut, rattling off the fastest last 800m/600m/400m and 200m splits of that April 17 event. Look for her late if they over-do it up front.
The well-bred 9. Totally Discreet makes her debut and although she was slow out of the gates in an April 8 jump-out from Murray Bridge, the recovery was strong and she won that heat softly on the line.
Race 2 - 12:20PM G.H. Mumm Handicap Tips (1600 METRES)
Hard to get enthused about the price for 1. LORD VLADIVOSTOK albeit he simply looks to pick himself in a race with a long tail to it. Winning two in a row before contesting the CS Hayes Stakes, he was outclassed by Ironclad on that occasion, the subsequent Bendigo Mile winner who might be a spring contender. The Hickmott/Eaton combination are striking at 27.5% this season.
If there's a threat, then 4. Hasta La War is it. While he's likely improve again next time given the 1200m to 1600m second-up pattern off a 14 month spell, this gelding is every bit as talented as the favourite. Over an unsuitable trip, the fresh run was okay when blowing the cobwebs off.
Would prefer 8. Oh Mo in something a little easier, but off current form, he's a definite top three hope here. A winner two starts back over this track/trip, he saw nothing but backsides following that on April 10.
5. France's Boy won that same BM76 that Oh Mo contested but was then a little plain on the seven-day turnaround when well backed at a price. He draws for a soft run on the speed.
Race 3 - 12:55PM D C McKay Stakes Tips (1100 METRES)
Tough one to line-up given the queries around the two Godolphin fancies. Although 6. SAVATOXL was disappointing on resumption in the RN Irwin Stakes when well supported, he just never got into a rhythm when trying to settle outside Kemalpasa. Vorster takes the ride on Saturday and this galloper's best chance is if he puts the foot down early. He's a hard horse to reel in when a gap is pinched.
1. Viridine simply doesn't handle Moonee Valley where he was defeated two starts back as an odds-on favourite behind dual Group One winner Streets Of Avalon. Freshened-up following a midfield finish at Caulfield. he's won an April 16 jump-out ahead of this.
No idea what to make of 5. Pandemic. Was luckless first-up at Moonee Valley but you couldn't back him with stolen money off the last effort at Rosehill. Down on the minimum off a favourable map where he can blend in late off a good speed, he's obviously capable enough here.
Suspect on his class at this level but concede that 9. Brimarvi Vehero
could fill a top three or four slot here at a big price ($21.00 @ Neds
). He was competitive at Listed level two back before carrying 59.5kg to salute a fortnight back.
Race 4 - 1:30PM Port Adelaide Cup Tips (2500 METRES)
If 2. SILENT SOVEREIGN can't run out 2500m here, she never will. A Group Three winner over last years Adelaide Autumn Carnival, the daughter of Dalakhani ran into the handy stayer Realm Of Flowers two starts later over this track/trip, a mare that was unlucky in the Sydney Cup. Just touched off late at Caulfield last start after attempting to sustain a wide and early run, she is the class runner here.
Danny O'Brien has been building 5. Wyclif up to this journey, a lightly raced import who was a well backed favourite at Caulfield over 2000m, which he seemingly found a little short. His form is a little suspect overall but this may be the trip he's been searching for.
3. Converging loomed as the winner second-up in the Terang Cup on April 18, but was just a little one-paced over the last 200m although can now spike off that. Her ceiling has looked BM78 level up until now, however.
Another out of the Terang Cup is 4. Aurora's Symphony who peaked on his run late but was nearly two months between efforts, so was entitled to knock up. He recorded a winning hat-trick prior to that and will roll forward from a wide gate.
Race 5 - 2:05PM Queen Of The South Stakes Tips (1600 METRES)
Still searching for her first black-type victory is the honest mare 2. FABRIC and under Set Weights & Penalties conditions against her own sex, this is her best chance to grab one. The Caulfield return over 1200m was fine but she just didn't have the turn-of-foot to go with Missile Mantra, who is a little classier than this lot. Williams can cross and camp just off the leaders from barrier eight.
Given she has no first-up form, the Flemington return was solid from 1. In Good Health but she was a little disappointing following that. Has been freshened right up and Nolen should be able to take the lead from gate one. She was a Listed winner third-up last campaign.
If you could guarantee me a clean start from 8. Robe Bay
then I would be very tempted to get involved each-way at a decent price ($17.00 @ BlueBet
). Talented and has improvement to come, but she's been her own worst enemy of late. She easily could've won two or three more despite the good record.
The fresh effort from 7. Dazzling Damsel
was a blowout with this in mind but expect her to be ridden more positively now. Was brave when holding off Don'tdreamit'sover in December over this track/trip, a galloper that has some reasonable form lines. One for the exotics at fair odds ($17.00 @ Ladbrokes
Race 6 - 2:45PM TAB Tobin Bronze Stakes Tips (Formerly Euclase Stakes) (1200 METRES)
You could make a case for most of this field, but at the price, we'll go with 12. SMOKIN' VAL who had the winkers applied off a freshen-up into the Redelva Stakes where she sustained a wide run but Muntaseera just had the charmed run through late. With something taking her into that race, she goes even closer and ideally with a tow into this from Rainbiel or Malicorne, can chime in again late.
3. Ocean Beyond looked a pretty straight forward galloper in his first campaign, settling outside the leader on both occasions before sprinting away late. He did go from a Geelong Maiden to a Listed race at just start two and should land in the first few pairs here.
8. Minhaaj was a first-up winner at Caulfield and saw plenty of traffic in that Redelva Stakes, so there were definite excuses although ideally, I would've liked to have seen a shade more when she did get out.
The favourite 2. Beau Rossa bolted in second-up in a 64 before stepping to the mile on Vobis day, a race where he was narrowly denied by Rippa Rita. and now plummets to 1200m a fortnight later. He's genuine, but a false favourite for mine in a decent sprint field.
Race 7 - 3:25PM TAB Classic Tips (Registered as Robert Sangster Stakes) (1200 METRES)
READ: Full Robert Sangster Stakes Preview
While she tasted defeat for the first time in the Thousand Guineas, 15. INSTANT CELEBRITY simply didn't run out a strong mile, but class took her a long way and the April 9 trial when coasting past seasoned Group winning sprinter Kemalpasa was superb. She was disappointing first-up considering that piece of work and the market didn't want a bar of her fresh. Need to forgive one sub-par effort.
Dropping 3. Subpoenaed back to six furlongs is another challenge but third-up and freshened-up following her Coolmore Classic tilt, the Chris Waller placement is no accident with this versatile mare for what is the most winnable Group One she'll face.
The return at Caulfield from 11. Rubisaki
was always going to treated with caution given her poor spring and despite finishing seventh of 10, was only beaten two lengths after getting off heels and angling out at the 100m. She goes in at good odds ($17.00 @ Palmerbet
2. Mizzy has had an unusual preparation, going nowhere early before a pair of runner-up finishes at Group One level, which is easily the best form of anything in this race. It's just whether she can now bounce back off that George Ryder flop which was her fifth run this campaign.
Race 8 - 4:05PM Australasian Oaks Tips (2000 METRES)
READ: Full Australasian Oaks Preview
Leading Tasmanian trainer Scott Brunton is still on the hunt for his first Group One winner and gets his best chance yet to record that on Saturday with 4. HELA who is unbeaten from seven starts on the 'Apple Isle'. She is a straight forward galloper that puts herself on the speed and is one that is capable of sprinting off any tempo, being bombproof to date. Hark to knock.
Set to have her first tilt in Australia is 3. Tokorangi
who has had all of her starts spaced out, the last of those coming in the New Zealand Derby. She's been able to settle closer to the speed over these longer trips and is a chance at a double figure price ($19.00 @ WinnersBet
The Auraria Stakes effort from 9. Sirileo Miss
had as much merit as any, after being left vulnerable late when the leader dropped out quickly at the 300m. She boxed on well and with perhaps a slightly colder ride (winkers off) she can figure at big odds ($20.00 @ TopSport
13. Steinem is the Australasian Oaks favourite and was backed as if unbeatable in that Auraria Stakes off a big win, albeit in a modest 64. There's a fair bit of hype off only a small body of work but there's no doubting she has class.
Race 9 - 4:40PM Bill Spear OAM Memorial Handicap Tips (1200 METRES)
A Benchmark 64 ends this Group One card (yes, a 64) and it's a raffle. While she hasn't saluted since the 2019 Magic Millions Clockwise Classic, 10. EUPHORIC SUMMER has the best credentials, defeating the likes of Aysar last winter before some competitive efforts in handy races. She was given a sore back first-up at Cranbourne with a wide run albeit in an event that's no stronger than this.
Dropping in grade off a win but rising in the weights is 11. Lady Dunmore who did get the favours in that April 10 affair, but took advantage and has two prevailed in two of her last three. That's good enough to be winning this.
7. Wide Awake is another Will Clarken tried horse, but still racing under the Yulong brand. She was 64 competitive in Melbourne and got a confidence boosting victory at Strathalbyn in her first run for the new stable. That was a much easier assignment, however.
At the price ($20.50 @ Sportsbetting
), I would include veteran 6. Perfect Command
first-up here. He was competitive in much stronger races only last year and was backed into favouritism when resuming in a BM72 last campaign, finishing fourth against better company than this.