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2021 Classic Chase Tips - Two long-odds selections who could challenge at Warwick

  • We take a look through the ante-post betting for the 2021 Classic Chase
  • This Grade Three Handicap Chase takes place at Warwick on Saturday afternoon
  • Notachance heads the betting, ahead of Captain Chaos and Storm Control
  • The Hollow Ginge and Didero Vallis are our two against the field
classic chase warwick
A view of the runners in the Classic Chase at Warwick. (Getty)

Warwick racecourse stages the biggest meeting of their season on Saturday, where the Classic Chase is the big betting race of the day. This Handicap Chase was promoted to Grade Three status in 2004, and has regularly been used as a trial for the Grand National ever since.

We've taken a look at the latest odds, listed some current trends, and picked out two of our best betting tips.

2021 Classic Chase Odds


Name
Odds
Notachance5/1
Captain Chaos6/1
Storm Control6/1
Nearly Perfect7/1
Le Breuil7/1
Danny Whizzbang8/1
Bar10/1

*Odds taken from Paddy Power on 12/1/21*

2021 Classic Chase Trends


  • 14 of the last 15 winners did not win on their previous start
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had started at least one race over 3m2f
  • 12 of the last 15 winners had won a 3m chase
  • 11 of the last 15 winners carried 11-2 or less in weight
  • 11 of the last 15 winners were aged between 8 and 10
  • 11 of the last 15 winners went off at 12/1 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 15 winners were rated between 133 and 140
  • 9 of the last 15 winners had placed in a Graded chase

2021 Classic Chase Runners


Notachance2021 Classic Chase Ante-Post FavouriteGET 5/1 HERE
18+ only. Ts and Cs apply. Gamble responsibly.

Notachance currently leads the way in the betting, following an impressive victory at Bangor on his reappearance. The trends, however, say that Alan King's charge is too young, too inexperienced at Graded level, and is yet to prove he has the stamina for a trip of this length.

Captain Chaos finished second in this race last year, off a mark just two pounds lower than this. Dan Skelton's ten-year-old has been in woeful form this season though, pulling up twice before a 27-length defeat at Newbury.

Ballyoptic sits eleven-pounds clear of his closest rival at the top of the weights. This leaves Walk In The Mill looking nicely treated. Robert Walford has fitted blinkers for the first time, but I suspect the team have got both eyes fixed on the Grand National, and won't want his weight getting too high.

Storm Control
and Nearly Perfect will bid to complete hat-tricks on Saturday. Both need to prove they are capable of winning off career-high marks. 

Danny Whizzbang hasn't got within 20 lengths of the winners in any of his last four starts over fences. Le Breuil has also been fairly uncompetitive in recent starts and, while he may be running off an appealing mark, I don't trust his jumping.

2021 Classic Chase Tip 1


The Hollow Ginge E/W2021 Classic Chase Ante-Post TipsGET 20/1 HERE
18+ only. Ts and Cs apply. Gamble responsibly.

Along with the trends listed above, seven of the last ten winners ran in a Graded race on their previous start, and five of the last six winners wore some form of headgear. These factors only strengthen my belief that THE HOLLOW GINGE could go really well at Warwick, and I think he's been wildly overlooked at 20/1.

Having unseated Jamie Bargary at the first on his reappearance, The Hollow Ginge stayed on gamely to finish fourth off 144 in the Ladbrokes Trophy. Twiston-Davies' eight-year-old was then travelling smoothly alongside Secret Reprieve in the Welsh National last weekend, but landed badly after jumping the 13th and Bargary was flung from the saddle.

cloth cap
The Hollow Ginge (centre, background) stays on for fourth behind Cloth Cap in the Ladbrokes Trophy. (Getty)

Now, the turnaround between these races is just seven days. The Hollow Ginge was lobbing along the whole way around though, and only jumped two more fences before being caught as the field started around the final bend. 

The Hollow Ginge would enter this handicap off a mark one-pound lower than what he carried into the places in the Ladbrokes Trophy. With stablemate Ballyoptic sitting so far ahead of the chasing pack in the ratings, Sam Twiston-Davies has just 10-9 to shoulder.

2021 Classic Chase Tip 2


Didero Vallis E/W2021 Classic Chase Ante-Post TipsGET 16/1 HERE
18+ only. Ts and Cs apply. Gamble responsibly.

With some of the leading fancies looking vulnerable, I'm going to take a second ante-post punt on DIDERO VALLIS. Venetia Williams' eight-year-old was last seen running in the Grand Sefton at Aintree, where his jumping wasn't nearly slick enough to hold his prominent pitch over a two-and-a-half mile trip.

Didero Vallis' best performance came over three miles in last year's Rowland Meyrick, where Lucy Turner's mount was beaten into second by the classy Top Ville Ben, and managed to cross the line ahead of Lake View Lad and Wakanda.

While he might not be the most dependable of jumpers, I'm confident this extended trip will really suit, especially on soft ground. Didero Vallis has question marks next to his stamina, but he's carrying just 10-0, and the challenge of the Classic Chase could really suit him.

US

Verdict

If The Hollow Ginge is handed the chance to make up for his early exit in the Welsh National, then I can see Nigel Twiston-Davies' charge getting backed into around 10/1, so take 20s while you can.

I also think Didero Vallis has been overlooked in the betting, and he too could run well beyond his odds.

2021 Classic Chase Tips: The Hollow Ginge Each-Way @2000.0 at BetMGM - 8 Units
2021 Classic Chase Tips: Didero Vallis Each-Way @1600.0 at PlaySugarhouse Sport - 5 Units

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