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2021 Lincoln Handicap Tips - Odds, trends and best bets for Doncaster

  • We've published our guide to the 2021 Lincoln Handicap
  • The Lincoln will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 27th March
  • Eastern World is the hot favourite for James Doyle and Charlie Appleby
  • Danyah and Ouzo are our ante-post selections
Danyah
Danyah winning at Doncaster last season. (Getty)

The flat season officially kicks off on Saturday, as Doncaster stages the lucrative Lincoln Handicap. This Heritage Handicap was first run at Doncaster in 1965, and has been won by some excellent horses down the years. Addeybb claimed victory in the 2018 Lincoln, and he's gone on to claim multiple Grade Ones around the world.

Here are the latest odds and some key trends for the Lincoln, as well as a couple of horses to back.

2021 Lincoln Handicap Odds


Name
Odds
Eastern World3/1
Haqeeqy7/2
Brentford Hope6/1
King Ottokar7/1
River Nymph7/1
Danyah11/1
Bar12/1

*Odds taken from Unibet on 24/3/21*

2021 Lincoln Handicap Trends


  • 14 of the last 15 winners were having their first start in Britain that year
  • 14 of the last 15 winners had won a race on turf
  • 13 of the last 15 winners were weighted between 8-10 and 9-04
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were rated between 95 and 100
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were drawn in stall 9 or wider (66% of top 3 placers in last 15 years drawn stall 9 or wider)
  • 11 of the last 15 winners were aged four or five
  • 11 of the last 15 winners ran in a good quality handicap last time out (Class 2 or above)
  • 11 of the last 15 winners had won over one mile
  • 10 of the last 15 winners went off at 9/1 or longer (4 of the other 5 winners were favourite)

James Doyle has won the last two editions of this handicap, and he'll partner favourite Eastern World on Saturday. Three of the last 15 Lincoln winners came into the race having run at Meydan, and Charlie Appleby's charge must be in with a strong chance based on his victory in Dubai last month. At 3/1, though, he's too short for me to back in such a competitive race.

Brentford Hope is certainly a pattern-race performer - whether he can perform at his best on good ground is another question. Haqeeqy's jockey booking makes me think connections are worried about his mark, and King Ottokar seems to be in the grip of the handicapper.

2021 Lincoln Handicap Tip 1 - DANYAH


Danyah E/W2021 Lincoln Handicap Tip 1GET 11/1 HERE
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Following the sad passing of leading owner and breeder, Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, it would be fitting if DANYAH could carry his colours to victory in this year's Lincoln.

Owen Burrow's charge enjoyed a progressive three-year-old campaign last season, winning well on debut before placing third in two competitive handicaps on soft ground. Danyah was backed into favouritism onn his final start at Haydock, and rewarded his many backers with a smooth victory over Alternative Fact.

Both of Danyah's best performances came on good ground, so ground conditions this weekend should be ideal. Kieran Shoemark's mount has winning form on this track, and remains open to plenty of progression.

Ouzo races
Ouzo winning at Sandown in 2019. (Getty)

2021 Lincoln Handicap Tip 2 - OUZO


Ouzo E/W2021 Lincoln Handicap Tip 2GET 20/1 HERE
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I also wouldn't be shocked to see the classy OUZO run a big race. Richard Hannon's charge finally claimed a deserved victory on his final start of last season, staying on gamely late on to deny Chance and Shelir in a Class Two at York.

Since running up a hat-trick in the summer of 2019, Ouzo has hit the crossbar at the highest level on a number of occasions. Sean Levey's mount has a solid reappearance record too, having been narrowly beaten into second by high-quality rivals on both of his starts after a winter break.

Ouzo has been pushed up to a career-high rating of 97 following that win at York. Considering he ran up to an RPR of 103 that day, the handicapper may have been slightly lenient with that revised mark, and there could be more improvement to come from Ouzo during his five-year-old campaign.
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