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2021 Racing Post Gold Cup Tips - Odds, trends and two tips for Cheltenham

By Jon Vine
  • Our guide to the 2021 Racing Post Gold Cup
  • This Handicap Chase takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday 11th December
  • Get the latest odds and key trends in the article below
  • Dostal Phil and Siruh Du Lac are our two against the field
midnight shadow
Midnight Shadow (second right) beating Dostal Phil (left) in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. (Getty)
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Formerly known as the December Gold Cup and the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, Racing Post have now taken over the sponsorship of this fantastic handicap. This Grade Three is the big betting race on International Hurdle day at Cheltenham, and has previously been won by greats like Flyingbolt, Pendil, Exotic Dancer and Frodon, who scored in 2016 and '18.

We've taken a look through the latest betting for the Racing Post Gold Cup and listed some key recurring trends, before picking out our top two betting tips.

2021 Racing Post Gold Cup Odds


Name
Odds
Lalor5/1
Alnadam7/1
Dostal Phil7/1
Silver Hallmark8/1
Midnight Shadow10/1
Noble Yeats10/1
Bar12/1

*Odds taken on 8/12/21*

2021 Racing Post Gold Cup Trends


  • All of the past 15 winners had run at least once already that season
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had won or placed around Cheltenham before
  • 13 of the last 15 winners were aged between six and eight
  • 12 of the last 15 winners won or placed last time out
  • 9 of the last 15 winners carried 10-10 or less 
  • 9 of the last 15 winners returned an SP of 9/1 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 15 winners had run in that season's Paddy Power Gold Cup
  • 9 of the last 15 winners had started no more than eight races over fences

2021 Racing Post Gold Cup Tips - The Negatives


Lalor2021 Racing Post Gold Cup FavouriteGET 5/1 HERE
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No horse older than eight has won this handicap since 1993. Although we have seen a few horses carry big weights to victory in recent times, eight of the last ten winners have carried 10-10 or less. Those two important trends count against current favourite Lalor, who - when the mud-loving Dashel Drasher doesn't get his ground - will be left shouldering 11-6 on Saturday.

Given it's run over the same distance, around the same course, at a similar time of year, the Paddy Power Gold Cup is often a big pointer towards this race. I tipped the first and second in that race four weeks ago, as Midnight Shadow held off Protektorat. Midnight Shadow will attempt to become the first horse since Exotic Dancer to seal the famous double, but I'm finding it much harder to fancy Sue Smith's stable star this time around off a seven-pound higher mark.

Alnadam is another who would prefer much softer ground and I didn't think he jumped well around Cheltenham on his only previous start here in last season's Ultima. Noble Yeats is a horse I really like, but he's run very poorly on his two most recent chase starts and has never raced around Cheltenham before. Silver Hallmark is talented, lightly-raced and very well-handicapped. However, he too has never run around Cheltenham before, which I always see as a big negative in handicaps around Prestbury Park.

2021 Racing Post Gold Cup Tip 1 - Dostal Phil


Dostal Phil2021 Racing Post Gold Cup TipsGET 7/1 HERE
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Several shrewdies fancied DOSTAL PHIL to run well ahead of the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Aidan Coleman's mount didn't jump particularly well early on and only had three horses behind him when the field began to descend Cleeve Hill. On just his third start over a trip further than two miles, Dostal Phil finished off his race really well, crossing the line just three lengths behind Midnight Shadow and only a length short of Lalor back in fourth.

Hobbs' eight-year-old only won one of his five starts as a novice last season, but his seasonal form is stacking up really well. Dostal Phil thrashed future Grade One runner-up Funambule Sivola on his chase debut at Newbury, before finishing just behind classy sorts like Grey Diamond, Editeur Du Gite and Sully D'Oc in the Spring. He was still going well behind Asterion Forlonge on his final start at Punchestown before unsteating Simon Torrens at the fifth-last.

The handicapper has only upped Dostal Phil a pound in the weights following that solid effort in the Paddy Power. Now that Aidan Coleman knows he will definitely see out the trip, I'm hoping he will ride Dostal Phil more positively as he looks to build on that excellent reappearance.

2021 Racing Post Gold Cup Tip 2 - Siruh Du Lac


Siruh Du Lac E/W2021 Racing Post Gold Cup TipsGET 20/1 HERE
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I'm also going to take a speculative punt on an old favourite of mine, SIRUH DU LAC, who I tipped up when he won the Paddy Power Plate at the Cheltenham Festival in 2019.

David Pipe's eight-year-old has only run four times since then. Having been pulled up in the 2019 Paddy Power Gold Cup, Siruh Du Lac fell two from home when still holding a lead as he attempt to defend his crown in the Plate. On his only start last season, again in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, Tom Scudamore was flung from the saddle at the very first flight.

Instead of heading back to that handicap this season, Pipe gave his recruit a pipe-opener in a novices' hurdle to kick off his campaign. Siruh Du Lac ran well for a long way on his first start over three miles, but faded late on as Bardenstown Lad and Dragon Bones came to the fore, eventually cantering over the line as the final finisher. 

Still, it was good to see Siruh Du Lac actually complete a race. We know he's a much better chaser than a hurdler and Cheltenham is clearly his favourite track. Those recent struggles over fences mean Siruh Du Lac will be running off a mark just two pounds higher than what he carried to victory at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival and he's certainly got the ability to outrun his current lengthy odds.
GB

Verdict

Dostal Phil is our best bet in this year's Racing Post Gold Cup. We'll also be having a small each-way bet on Siruh Du Lac.

2021 Racing Post Gold Cup Best Bet: Dostal Phil Straight Win @7/1 at William Hill - 15 Units
2021 Racing Post Gold Cup Value Bet: Siruh Du Lac Each-Way @20/1 at Unibet - 5 Units
  • Bookmaker
    Bet Type
    Odds
  • Bookmaker
    Promo Code:H30
    Bet Type
    Dostal Phil
    Straight Win
    Odds
    @7/1
  • Bookmaker
    Promo Code:Code Activated
    Bet Type
    Siruh Du Lac
    Each-Way
    Odds
    @20/1

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