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Eye On Cheltenham 2025 - Fact To File clear Gold Cup favourite after John Durkan win

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Jon Vine
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Last updated: 26 Nov 2024
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Jon Vine 26 Nov 2024
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  • Week four of our Cheltenham Festival 2025 market movers series
  • Big meetings took place at Punchestown and Haydock this week
  • Fact To File, Brighterdaysahead and Ballyburn are among the 14 market movers from this past week
fact to file
Mark Walsh riding Fact To File (green/gold) clear the last to win The Brown Advisory Novices' Chase during day two of the Cheltenham Festival 2024. (Getty)
    Eye On Cheltenham - Week 4
  • Fact To File
  • Brighterdaysahead
  • Lucky Place
  • Royal Pagaille
  • Celtic Dino
  • That's Nice
  • Lot Of Joy
  • Kateira
  • Ballyburn
  • Iberico Lord
  • Touch Me Not
  • Stellar Story
  • Only By Night
  • Kalypso'chance

Here's week four of our Eye On Cheltenham series, highlighting Festival market movers from between November 19th and November 25th.

Three Grade Ones took place across Britain and Ireland this weekend, with the winners of the Morgiana Hurdle, Betfair Chase and the John Durkan making significant moves in the Cheltenham markets. Here are 14 Cheltenham Festival market movers from the last seven days.

Eye On Cheltenham 2025 - Week 4


Fact To File


A thrilling renewal of the John Durkan Memorial Chase went the way of Willie Mullins, as Fact To File held off the charging Spillane's Tower to claim victory. Fact To File is now the clear favourite for the 2025 Gold Cup, with bet365 quoting odds of 5/2. 

Spillane's Tower was slashed into 9/1 for the Gold Cup on the back of that narrow defeat. Two-time defending Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs, who finished a solid third on Sunday, is available at 4/1.

Brighterdaysahead


State Man suffered his first defeat in over 18 months on Saturday, as Brighterdaysahead fought back to beat the defending champion in the Morgiana Hurdle. Gordon Elliott's mare shortened into 2/1 favouritism for the 2025 Mares' Hurdle, while also seeing her Champion Hurdle odds cut into 8/1 from 16s.

Lucky Place


Nicky Henderson was provided with a tonic for his Constitution Hill troubles when Lucky Place made a winning return to action in the Ascot Hurdle on Saturday. Henderson's youngster then entered the betting for the 2025 Stayers' Hurdle at an opening price of 25/1.

Royal Pagaille


Venetia Williams' star made it back-to-back wins in the Betfair Chase on Saturday, battling back to beat favourite Grey Dawning by a length. Royal Pagaille was then cut into 33/1 for the Gold Cup, with Grey Dawning drifting a touch out to 16/1.

Celtic Dino


Sam Thomas' rising star made it two-from-two over hurdles with an easy victory at Ascot on Friday. Celtic Dino was then cut into 40/1 for the 2025 Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

That's Nice


In a thrilling showdown between herself and Honky Tonk Highway, That's Nice made a winning hurdles debut at Warwick on Thursday. Nicky Henderson's mare then jumped up to 12/1 third-favourite for the 2025 Mares' Novices' Hurdle.

Lot Of Joy


The first of two winners for Willie Mullins on John Durkan day was provided by Lot Of Joy, who ran out a ready winner of the Listed Mares' Hurdle. Mullins mare was then cut into 25/1 for the 2025 Mares' Hurdle.

ballyburn
Paul Townend on board Ballyburn on their way to winning the Gallagher Novices Hurdle. (Getty)

Kateira


Dan Skelton will have been pleased to see Kateira make up for an underwhelming reappearance at Wetherby by winning the Listed Mares' Hurdle at Kempton on Monday. Kateira is now best priced at 33/1 for the Mares' Hurdle, and 40/1 for the Stayers' Hurdle with Boylesports.

Ballyburn


Willie Mullins unleashed Ballyburn over fences at Punchestown on Saturday and Paul Townend's mount jumped fluently as he made a winning chasing debut. Ballyburn is already the 6/4 favourite for the 2025 Arkle Challenge Trophy with some bookmakers, while also sitting atop the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase market at 5/1.

Iberico Lord


Iberico Lord followed in the footsteps of Altior and Shishkin by making a winning chasing debut at Kempton. Both of his former stablemates went on to win the Arkle that year, but Nicky Henderson's former Greatwood winner was only cut into 33/1 to win that Grade One after Monday's win.

Touch Me Not


Touch Me Not upset the applecart by beating stablemate and strong-favourite, Farren Glory in the Grade Two Craddockstown Novice Chase at Punchestown on Sunday. Gordon Elliott's five-year-old entered the Arkle betting at 40/1, with former Royal Bond winner Farren Glory drifting out to 66s.

Stellar Story


In a three-way battle between Gordon Elliott runners, Stellar Story edged out Search For Glory to make a winning chasing debut in the Florida Pearl. Elliott's Albert Bartlett winner is now best-priced at 20/1 to win the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase.

Only By Night


Gavin Cromwell's mare upset hot-favourite Mirazur West to make a winning chasing debut at Tipperary on Friday. Only By Night immediately entered the Mares' Chase betting at an opening price of 25/1.

Kalypso'chance


A strong weekend for Gordon Elliott was completed as Kalypso'chance ran out a 15-length winner of the card-closing bumper at Punchestown. Elliott's youngster is now the clear 8/1 favourite for the 2025 Champion Bumper.

Verdict

Eye On Cheltenham Week 3 Key Movers:

Best Bet1: Fact To File 2025 Gold Cup @5/2 at BoyleSports - 5 Units
Best Bet2: Ballyburn 2025 Arkle @6/4 at bet365 - 5 Units
Best Bet3: Brighterdaysahead 2025 Mares' Hurdle @2/1 at bet365 - 5 Units
Best Bet4: That's Nice 2025 Ryanair Chase @12/1 at Unibet - 5 Units
Fact To File
2025 Gold Cup
@5/2 - 5 Units
Bet £10 Get £20
In free bets

New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. Mobile exclusive. Min Deposit £10. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. Free bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. 30 days to qualify. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. Account & Payment method restrictions apply. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP Address only. 18+. T&Cs apply. **18+. Online Only. Get paid out as a winner if your team is winning by 2 goals, even if you draw or lose. 90 mins only. Applies to Singles & Multiples. T&Cs apply.

Bet at BoyleSports
Ballyburn
2025 Arkle
@6/4 - 5 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

Bet at bet365
Brighterdaysahead
2025 Mares' Hurdle
@2/1 - 5 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

Bet at bet365
That's Nice
2025 Ryanair Chase
@12/1 - 5 Units
Bet £10 Get £40
Get £40 in Bonuses

18+. BeGambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Min £10 debit card deposit. Place a £10+ bet at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days. Opt in for £20 in free bets and £20 Casino Bonus. Valid for 7 days. Geographical restrictions and T&C’s apply.

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