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2024 Epsom Derby Tips - Owen's outsider the value bet in Saturday's Classic

jon-vine
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Last updated: 31 May 2024
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Jon Vine 31 May 2024
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  • Tips for the 2024 Epsom Derby [Updated on 30/5/24]
  • This famous Classic will take place at Epsom on Saturday 1st June
  • We've backed Deira Mile at 33/1
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desert crown epsom
The Derby at Epsom. (Getty)

There are now just two days until the 2024 Derby takes place at Epsom and this year's field is starting to take shape.

The stars seemed to be aligning for favourite City Of Troy ahead of this year's Epsom Derby. All of the major trials have been won and the three most impressive winners won't be running at Epsom.

Here's our early guide to this famous Classic.

2024 Epsom Derby Odds


Name
Odds
City Of Troy7/2
Los Angeles4/1
Ancient Wisdom11/2
Ambiente Friendly7/1
Dancing Gemini10/1
Bar14/1

2024 Epsom Derby Runners


Arabian Crown met with a set-back following his impressive victory at Sandown and Hidden Law suffered a fatal injury moments after his star-studded performance in the Chester Vase. Economics produced a similarly impressive display when dismantling the Dante field, but William Haggas has decided to bypass Epsom with his inexperienced star.

Ambiente Friendly was much the best in the Lingfield Derby Trial. However, the Gredley's decision to jock off Callum Shepherd in favour of Rab Havlin has done nothing but spread discord within the camp. Los Angeles was thoroughly unimpressive when scoring at Leopardstown. True, all of Aidan O'Brien's three-year-olds have improved for their reappearances, but I can't see this cumbersome horse being athletic enough for the Downs and he'll want the ground to be extremely soft. 

Going back to City Of Troy who, on juvenile form, should probably be shorter than his current price. Auguste Rodin won the Derby after a poor reappearance in the 2000 Guineas, so we know Aidan O'Brien is capable of pulling off such a miracle. 

That being said, Auguste Rodin was always going to be better as a three-year-old. City Of Troy's dam and all of her progeny did their winning as juveniles. In fact, his four siblings managed one win from 26 starts as three and four-year-olds, and the market leader has an abysmal reappearance run to overcome.

If City Of Troy were to win the Derby - even after drawing stall one - would I be surprised? No. Do I fancy backing the favourite at 7/2? Not a chance.

ancient wisdom
Deira Mile (second right, green and white) finishing fourth to Ancient Wisdom in the Futurity Trophy. (Getty)

2024 Epsom Derby Tip - Deira Mile


Ancient Wisdom didn't run badly at all behind Economics in the Dante and juicier ground at Epsom would certainly suit. Macduff is a promising middle-distance horse for Ralph Beckett and looked like he wanted a longer trip in the Classic Trial at Sandown. 

Mojo Star and King Of Steel were both 50/1 outsiders when they finished second in the Derby and their colours will be carried by outsider Dallas Star, whose shock victory in the Ballysax Stakes has been a little overlooked.

All three represent each-way value at their current prices. Yet, the one who interests me the most is DEIRA MILE (Tipped at 33/1, now 25/1), who has been trained with this year's Derby in mind.

Owen Burrow's star failed to win as a juvenile, but his two-year-old form is rock-solid. Deira Mile placed a close third on his first two starts, finishing on the tail of fellow Derby entrants Defiance, Caviar Heights and God's Window, while also crossing the line well ahead of Blue Ribband Trial winner, Bellum Justum.

Burrows then found an easy winning opportunity at Chelmsford in September, but the 1/5 favourite threw that race away by hanging into and colliding with the rail down the entire length of the home straight. Deira Mile put that performance behind him with an excellent showing in the Futurity Trophy, where Burrow's star hit the line hard just three lengths behind Ancient Wisdom. 

With Epsom jockey Jim Crowley in the saddle, Deira Mile got off the mark on his sole three-year-old start at Windsor, where he handled the track well and kicked clear of a semi-decent rival to score very easily. Deira Mile was cut into 33/1 from 66s after his gallop at Epsom this week - a work-out that left Crowley very impressed.

Ahmad Al Shaik - the chief of Green Team Racing - has come close to winning the Derby in recent years, with both Khalifa Sat and Hoo Ya Mal finishing second at massive prices. To him, and many, it's the most important race in the world. Deira Mile has had one target on his radar and Owen Burrows is an excellent target trainer. 33/1 is worth taking.

Verdict

Deira Mile is our each-way selection for the 2024 Epsom Derby at 33/1.

Best Bet1: Deira Mile E/W 2024 Epsom Derby Tips @33/1 at BoyleSports - 10 Units
Deira Mile E/W
2024 Epsom Derby Tips
@33/1 - 10 Units
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