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Epsom Oaks Stats - Is the Musidora the top prep race?

jon-vine
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Last updated: 21 May 2024
jon-vine
Jon Vine 21 May 2024
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  • Key statistics for the Epsom Oaks
  • We wanted to know what the best lead-up race is for this famous Classic
  • The 1000 Guineas comes out on top of the statistics
epsom oaks
The Oaks at Epsom. (Getty)

With the Epsom Derby Festival on the horizon, punters are busy looking through the form ahead of the first Classic of the meeting, the Epsom Oaks.

Soul Sister won the Musidora Stakes before claiming Oaks glory at Epsom and this year's surprise winner at York, Secret Satire sits prominently in the current Epsom Oaks betting. Is the Musidora the best lead-up race for the Oaks? We've taken a look at the last ten winners and placed horses to come up with an answer.

Epsom Oaks Statistics - Lead-Up Races (Winners)


Race Name
Score
3YO Races
1000 Guineas (Newmarket) 4
Irish 1000 Guineas (Curragh) 3
Musidora Stakes (York) 2
Cheshire Oaks (Chester) 2
Fred Darling Stakes (Newbury 1
Lingfield Oaks Trial 1
Pretty Polly Stakes (Newmarket) 1
2YO Races
Moyglare Stud Stakes (Curragh) 4
Fillies Mile (Newmarket) 3
Debutante Stakes (Curragh) 3
Silver Flash Stakes (Leopardstown) 1
Weld Park Stakes (Curragh) 1
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies 1

The 1000 Guineas comes out as the best trial for winners of the Epsom Oaks. Three fillies have gone straight from Newmarket to Classic glory at Epsom, with 2022 winner Tuesday also taking in the Irish 1000 Guineas before heading to the Oaks.

Tuesday is one of three fillies to have run in the Irish 1000 Guineas before winning at Epsom. The Musidora Stakes and Cheshire Oaks have produced two winners apiece in the last ten years. Six of the last ten winners ran in a maiden or novice contest within their last three starts.

The best juvenile trial is the Moyglare Stud Stakes, which has produced four winners of the Oaks the following year. Those winners were all trained by Aidan O'Brien, who has won six of the last ten runnings of this Classic. The last four British winners - three of whom were trained by John Gosden - only ran in maidens as juveniles.

Epsom Oaks Statistics - Lead-Up Races (Winners and Placers)


Race Name
Score
3YO Races
1000 Guineas (Newmarket) 9
Musidora Stakes (York) 5
Cheshire Oaks (Chester) 4
Lingfield Oaks Trial 3
Irish 1000 Guineas (Curragh) 3
Pretty Polly Stakes (Newmarket) 2
Newbury Fillies' Trial 2
Ribblesdale Stakes (Ascot)(Covid) 2
Seven Other Races 1
2YO Races
Moyglare Stud Stakes (Curragh) 6
Fillies Mile (Newmarket) 4
Debutante Stakes (Curragh) 4
Flame Of Tara Stakes (Curragh) 3
Montrose Fillies Stakes (Newmarket) 2
Pric Marcel Boussac (Longchamp) 2

Again, the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket tops the statistics when looking at the top three placers. Nine of the 30 horses analyses ran in that Classic at Newmarket, before either winning or placing at Epsom.

The Musidora Stakes comes in with a score of five, closely followed by the Cheshire Oaks, which has produced four top-three finishers at Epsom. The Irish 1000 Guineas and the Lingfield Oaks Trial follow next with three.

18 of the 30 horses analyses ran in a maiden within three starts of securing a podium finish in the Epsom Oaks. Only two of the 30 runners finished worse than fourth on their last start before heading to Epsom and only three fillies had run more than twice during their three-year-old campaign.  

Only 27% of the winners and placers in the Oaks were not trained by either Aidan O'Brien or John Gosden, with 50% of the top three placers coming from O'Brien's yard. Five of the 30 fillies were rated lower than 100 heading into the Epsom Oaks. Only two had failed to register a victory in their last three starts, and they were 2018 winner Forever Together - the only maiden in this analysis - and 2015 champion Qualify, who returned an SP of 50/1.

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