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2021 Welsh Grand National Tips - Odds, Trends and Two Tips

jon-vine
26 Dec 2021
jon-vine
Jon Vine 26 Dec 2021
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  • Read our guide to the 2021 Welsh Grand National
  • This historic handicap takes place at Chepstow on Monday 27th December
  • Secret Reprieve is the favourite to retain his crown
  • Get the latest odds, key trends and our two against the field here
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Secret Reprieve
Secret Reprieve ridden by Adam Wedge goes on to win the Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase at Chepstow Racecourse last season. (Getty)

Kempton and Leopardstown may hog the headlines over Christmas, but the racing highlight for many over Christmas is the Welsh Grand National. 

This three-and-three-quarter mile handicap chase was first run at Chepstow racecourse back in 1895. The Welsh National has been won by several Gold Cup heros down the years too, including greats like Burrough Hill Lad, Master Oats, Synchronised and Native River.

With less than two weeks to go until this year's Welsh Grand National is shown live on ITV Racing, we've taken a look through the latest odds, listed some key trends and picked out two bets.
    Table Of Contents
  • 2021 Welsh Grand National Ante-Post Guide
  • 2021 Welsh Grand National Odds
  • 2021 Welsh Grand National Trends
  • 2021 Welsh Grand National Tips - Market Leaders
  • 2021 Welsh Grand National Tip 1 - Ask Me Early
  • 2021 Welsh Grand National Tip 2 - Eclair Surf

2021 Welsh Grand National Ante-Post Guide


2021 Welsh Grand National Odds


Name
Odds
Secret Reprieve9/2
The Big Dog13/2
Highland Hunter8/1
Hold That Taught9/1
Iwilldoit12/1
Deisa Aba12/1
Elegant Escape12/1
Bar14/1

*Odds correct as of 26/12/21*

The Tizzards have decided to run 2016 Welsh National winner, Native River at Chepstow once again, instead of taking up his entry in the King George VI Chase. Tizzard's former Gold Cup winner, who turned 12 in a few days time, will have to give ten pounds to his closest rival in the weights. Although there is some rain in the air between now and the 27th, I can't imagine the ground will turn as heavy as Native River likes. He has a massive task on his hands.

2021 Welsh Grand National Trends


  • 18 of the last 20 winners were aged between six and nine
  • 18 of the last 20 winners finished in the top four places on their last start
  • 17 of the last 20 winners had previously won on Very Soft or Heavy ground
  • 16 of the last 20 winners had run over a distance of three-and-a-half-miles (28 furlongs) at least once before
  • 16 of the last 20 winners had run at least twice that season
  • 15 of the last 20 winners carried a weight of 10-10 or less
  • 15 of the last 20 winners went off at 10/1 or shorter
  • 11 of the last 20 winners had won over fences at Chepstow

2021 Welsh Grand National Tips - Market Leaders


Secret Reprieve2021 Welsh Grand National FavouriteGET 9/2 HERE
18+ only. Ts and Cs apply. Gamble responsibly. Coral is operated by LC International Limited and licensed and regulated by the British Gambling Commission for persons gambling in Great Britain. For persons gambling outside Great Britain, Coral is licensed by the Government of Gibraltar and regulated by the Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner.

The Welsh National isn't a race that bookmakers look forward to, as 75% of the winners this century have gone off at 10/1 or less, so it would be sensible to look to those sitting prominently in the betting for a selection.

The top two from last month's London National, Highland Hunter and Deise Aba sit prominently in the betting. As does Paul Nicholls' novice Threeunderthrufive, who looks tailormade for this sort of challenge. Peter Fahey has also talked up the chances of The Big Dog, despite the British handicapper handing his charge a lofty rating of 147.

2021 Welsh Grand National Tip 1 - Secret Reprieve


Secret Reprieve2021 Welsh Grand National Tip Best BetGET 9/2 HERE
18+ only. Ts and Cs apply. Gamble responsibly. Coral is operated by LC International Limited and licensed and regulated by the British Gambling Commission for persons gambling in Great Britain. For persons gambling outside Great Britain, Coral is licensed by the Government of Gibraltar and regulated by the Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner.

SECRET REPRIEVE ran out an excellent winner of this race 12 months ago and Evan Williams' star remains ahead of the handicapper.

Adam Wedge's mount was backed into favouritism for this handicap last year, having run our a 12-length winner on his previous start in the Grand National Trial. Secret Reprieve jumped and travelled beautifully throughout, powering his way to the front approaching the second-last before being pushed out on the run to the line.

Williams isn't really known as a target trainer, but I still think there's a chance Secret Reprieve will produce his best first time out and Native River's presence means the defending champion will carry one pound lower on his back than what he won with 12-months ago.

2021 Welsh Grand National Tip 2 - Ramses De Teillee


Ramses De Teillee E/W2021 Welsh Grand National Tip Value BetGET 20/1 HERE
18+ only. Ts and Cs apply. Gamble responsibly. Coral is operated by LC International Limited and licensed and regulated by the British Gambling Commission for persons gambling in Great Britain. For persons gambling outside Great Britain, Coral is licensed by the Government of Gibraltar and regulated by the Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner.

I haven't had much luck with my ante-post bets, as both Ask Me Early and Eclair Surf have skipped an outing at Chepstow. Before backing Eclair Surf at a lengthy price, I had a long hard look at RAMSES DE TEILLEE, so I'm going to go with David Pipe's grey as my second selection.

Prior to a poor effort in this race 12 months ago, Ramses De Teillee's record at Chepstow was very strong. Pipe's star won twice here during his novice season. Tom Scudamore's mount then won the Welsh National Trial in 2018, before coming up just a length short of Elegant Escape in the main event three weeks later.

Ramses De Teillee was tailed off on his return to the Welsh National 12 months ago, having gone into the race on the back of a similar effort in the Becher. This time around Scudamore's mount comes into this race on the back of a solid effort behind Strictly A Dancer at Haydock, and he'll be running off a seven-pound lower mark than what he carried last year.

Verdict

Secret Reprieve is our best bet in the 2021 Welsh Grand National. We're also backing Ramses De Teillee at a much longer price.

2021 Welsh Grand National Best Bet: Secret Repreive Straight Win @9/2 at Boylesports - 15 Units
2021 Welsh Grand National Value Bet: Ramses De Teillee Each-Way @20/1 at Hollywood bets - 5 Units
Secret Repreive
Straight Win
@9/2 - 15 Units
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Ramses De Teillee
Each-Way
@20/1 - 5 Units
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