Breeders' Cup 2023 Tips - Peter Fornatale's Day 2 Selections

In his column with AtTheRaces, US racing expert Peter Fornatale has published his selections for day two of the 2023 Breeders' Cup...

ZOZOS Looks to have a chance to wire this group given his blazing early sectionals. On raw figures and form, he’s below the usual standard for a Breeders’ Cup race, but the specific nature of the Dirt Mile gives him a shot. After all, pace angles are why technically slower horses can beat their faster rivals.

IN ITALIAN Almost got the job done in this race year only to be run down late by Tuesday. Her recent speed figure suggests she’s in career form despite a couple of blots on her copy book this year. She’s the clear speed, and may be tougher to peg back around this speedy configuration, a la another Chad Brown trainee, Dayatthespa a few years back. I think she’s a serious threat to the big two and could go one better than last year, especially with the cozy inside draw.

I will definitely be keying her in exactas with WARM HEART and INSPIRAL, and I’ll box those two as well independently.

SOCIETY is the only horse who comes close on the figures to the fav. She is capable of throwing in the odd clunker but when she is on her ‘A’ game she is very good and capable of running extremely fast. She was five lengths behind Goodnight Olive in the Madison on her seasonal debut and bombed out in the La Troienne, but has found her stride since then, wiring her rivals to win the Chicago and the Pink Ribbon by wide margins. She clocked Beyers of 105 and 106 there respectively, having hit 100+ twice last year, and figures to make the lead here as there is not that much pace signed on. If she gets her own way on or near the lead, she’s a big threat to the favourite. There is a notable drop off in quality outside of the big two, with none of the other runners in the field having run a triple-figure Beyer before.

I’ll play an exacta boxing her with GOODNIGHT OLIVE and will do a small trifecta with those two in either order on top of KIRSTENBOSCH.

SHIRL'S SPEIGHT is listed at 33-1 in the betting and I’m not exactly sure why. He showed last year that he’s not outclassed in a race like this by finishing second within a length of Modern Games. His campaign this year has been pointed to this race with connections saying that he was going to be a little short for both the recent runs, with the idea being that he’d peak here. He’s trained by a master and should get a good trip. Has a place chance at least and is a must-use for trifecta players.

CLAIRIERE came into this race last year off a slight break following a disappointing run in the Personal Ensign. She ran huge, nearly winning the whole thing. This year, I think she looks even better in this spot because the sloppy conditions looked a valid reason for the poor Saratoga run and because this race shape looks to fit her perfectly. She’s clearly the best closer in a race full of speed. The truly crazy prices of last week are gone but I think she still offers value at 8-1.

ONESTO is a most interesting item to me. The 2022 Grand Prix de Paris winner probably hasn’t won the races his ability says he should have, but a closer look suggests there is a bit more to that than meets the eye. He was a bit unlucky not to beat Luxembourg in the 2022 Irish Champion on ground softer than ideal, and got completely bogged down next time in the Arc before catching the eye in the Japan Cup. Under similar conditions to those he’ll get at Santa Anita, he was stopped in his run when attempting to close up the inside, after which he was not hard pushed to finish seventh. 

This year, he ran a fine race behind Inspiral and Big Rock on his return to action over an inadequate mile in the Marois, and was again stopped at a crucial stage in the Irish Champion Stakes when once more attempting a daring inside run. Most recently, he finished a superb third in the Arc. Held up off a steady pace, he wasn’t quite able to go with the brilliant Ace Impact, but actually ran the final 3f in the same time (a rapid 33.06) and ran the fastest final furlong of the entire field, dipping below 11 seconds. That is arguably the best form on offer here and the Arc has been a notable trial for the Turf over the years – he looks too big at current odds.

I think Onesto looks the clear value of the race and you can try to lock up the exacta with AUGUSTE RODIN and MOSTAHDAF.

WHITE ABBARIO ran an incredible race in the historic Whitney in Saratoga and it’s no exaggeration to say that a simple repeat of that effort will win this race. Trainer Richard Dutrow, despite a multi-year suspension for medication overages, is no doubt an incredibly talented horseman. No less an authority than Bobby Frankel himself trusted Dutrow to take care of his horses when he shipped to tracks where the latter had a base and he didn’t. White Abarrio has never gone ten furlongs but he reminds me an awful lot of Saint Liam, who won this race for Dutrow way back in 2005 (there were similar distance questions which he answered authoritatively in the positive).

LIVE IN THE DREAM is a rapid gelding who scorched away in the Group 1 Nunthorpe and did way too much in front last time in the Woodford Stakes at Keeneland. He was weak in the betting that day and was still basically in front after five furlongs, and that was with going too fast without the best break. There’s a chance he could scare other pace pressure off here for fear that they’ll cut each other’s throats, and he won’t have to go that much slower early to be very hard to catch. Perfectly drawn to attack here but much will depend on what Nobals and Jasper Krone, to his outer, decide to do, and they look like they’ll want to lead too.

I will save with an each-way bet on Big Invasion as well. There’s a chance of a pace collapse and I’ve been talking about him as a potential Turf Sprint winner since the middle of last year.

ELITE POWER is the reigning champion and comes here off the back of a first defeat in over a year in the Forego. Wasn’t seen to best effect in that race but had look electric beforehand, particularly when dominating in the Middle East. Reopposes with old rival Gunite here on 2lb better terms and he looks to have been trained with his race in mind more than that foe. Holds the joint best Beyer in the field and this supremely talented colt remains the one they all have to beat, although draw hasn’t been kind and he will need pace to run at.