2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup Tips - Odds, trends and best bets
The 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham is drawing near, with anticipation building over key competitors like Stage Star and The Real Whacker. The article provides insightful analysis of previous trends, current odds, and handicap considerations. The top betting tip is Notlongtillmay with odds of 7/1, due to its strong performance in prep-runs and meeting most of the key trends.
- Odds, trends and ante-post tips for the 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup [Updated on 16/11/23]
- This handicap chase headlines the card at Cheltenham on Saturday 18th November
- Notlongtillmay is our sole selection at 7/1
The Paddy Power Gold Cup tops the billing on day two of the November Meeting at Cheltenham. This Grade Three Handicap Chase has been won by plenty of classy horses since it was created in 1960 - including Imperial Commander, who scored in 2008 before going on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup 18 months later.
I've taken a look through the ante-post betting for Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup and listed some key recurring trends, before picking out my best betting tips.
2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends
- 15 of the last 16 winners had previously run at Cheltenham
- 15 of the last 16 winners were aged between six and nine
- 13 of the last 16 winners were rated between 137 and 147
- 13 of the last 16 winners had run between five and nine times over fences
- 13 of the last 16 winners had run in a Grade One over hurdles or fences
- 12 of the last 16 had won or placed over fences at Cheltenham
- 12 of the last 16 winners carried 11-00 or less
- 12 of the last 16 winners went off at 12/1 or shorter
- 12 of the last 16 winners had run that season (including 9 of last 10)
2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup Odds
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Stage Star | 4/1 |
| The Real Whacker | 7/1 |
| Unexpected Party | 7/1 |
| Notlongtillmay | 7/1 |
| Il Ridoto | 8/1 |
| Fugitif | 10/1 |
| Bar | 12/1 |
Brown Advisory Chase winner, The Real Whacker will carry top weight into Saturday's main event. Patrick Neville has opted to run here purely because of the ground, which he's hoping will be decent. Neville was also quoted as saying recently that his Grade One winner would improve for the run, whatever happens. Although he is classy enough to achieve the feat, it would be a huge ask for The Real Whacker to win this carrying 12-00 on his first start of the season.
Like The Real Whacker, Stage Star also claimed Grade One honours at the Cheltenham Festival. Whereas The Real Whacker was rated at 162 for beating an error-strewn Gerri Colombe, Stage Star was upped to a rating of just 155, making him one of the lowest-rated winners of the Turners' Novices' Chase in the last decade.
Paul Nicholls has purposely kept his seven-year-old fresh for this handicap. Given the lack of obvious targets for two-and-a-half mile chasers this side of Christmas, I'd be surprised if Stage Star wasn't fully revved up for Saturday's assignment. Cheltenham racecourse - and the Old Course especially - suits front-running types. If anyone wanted to back Stage Star, I wouldn't put them off.
2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup Ante-Post Tip 1 - Notlongtillmay
If Stage Star's victory in the Turners' Novices' Chase has been slightly undervalued by the handicapper, then so has NOTLONGTILLMAY'S (7/1) runner-up finish in that Grade One. Laura Morgan's seven-year-old travelled beautifully into contention and jumped the second-last with a narrow lead, but it was Stage Star who produced the better leaps at the final two flights and Notlongtillmay faded a little on the run to the line.
Morgan has decided not to go down the Paul Nicholls route and got a prep-run into her stable star at the recent Showcase Meeting. Notlongtillmay carried 12-00 into a competitive two-mile handicap, where he got outpaced coming down the hill before staying on strongly to finish a close fourth behind Dancing On My Own.
As the trends suggest, horses who've had a run going into the Paddy Power Gold Cup usually have the upper hand. The handicapper left Notlongtillmay on the same mark of 152, meaning he'll have to shoulder just 11-4 in this handicap, if The Real Whacker is indeed confirmed.
Thankfully, I managed to get on Notlongtillmay before the deluge of money arrived for Morgan's seven-year-old on Sunday and Monday. Even at this fresh price of 7/1, Notlongtillmay is worth backing.
2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup Tip 2 - No Further Bets
The ground is currently soft at Cheltenham racecourse and plenty of rain has been forecast overnight on Friday night into Saturday morning. Notlongtillmay is one of just five runners in the field to have had a run this season, which should give him a fitness edge on what could be testing ground. Laura Morgan wasn't worried about the forecast either, further fueling the confidence behind my initial selection.
Harper's Brook is very well handicapped. Ben Pauling's seven-year-old won on heavy ground at Bangor last season and the team clearly thinks he stays further than this distance, having run him in last seaon's Ultima. Harper's Brook doesn't do much when he hits the front, meaning Kielan Woods will have to play his mount as late as possible - a tactic that doesn't often bear fruit on the Old course.
I'm also convinced that Easy As That - who I included in my 20 To Follow for the new season - remains ahead of the handicapper. Venetia Williams' stable is in fantastic form and testing ground wouldn't trouble this strong stayer.
Like Harper's Brook, I'd have liked to have seen Williams get a prep run into Easy As That. I'm going to go with Notlongtillmay as my sole selection on that basis, but if either was to mount a challenge, I wouldn't be at all surprised.
Verdict
Notlongtillmay is our sole selection for the 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Notlongtillmay
Win
@7/1 - 15 Units
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