Melbourne Cup 2026 Betting Tips - Australian Betting Guide

Alex Marsh

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Last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026 12:50

Alex Marsh 3 hours ago

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The $10 million Melbourne Cup takes centre stage at Flemington on Tuesday, November 3, with 24 runners tackling the famous 3200m staying test
Point Of Law heads our selections following his impressive Geelong Cup victory, with Trustyourinstinct rated the next best chance
Zakouma appeals as an overlooked value runner after a carefully managed preparation aimed at the first Tuesday in November

Point Of Law defeats Small Fry to claim the 2026 Geelong Cup, staking his Melbourne Cup claims. (Getty)

The race that stops a nation returns to Flemington on Tuesday, November 3, with a capacity field of 24 runners set to tackle the $10 million Melbourne Cup, Australia's most famous staying race and the centrepiece of the Melbourne Cup Carnival.

Our friends over at Bets.com.au have published their guide to the 2026 Melbourne Cup, including a range of betting selections...

2026 Melbourne Cup Tips

Melbourne Cup 2026 Best Bet - Point Of Law

Point Of Law has stormed into Melbourne Cup favouritism following his outstanding Geelong Cup victory on October 21, and the Ciaron Maher-trained import looks one of the most progressive runners in Tuesday's field. There's an obvious question about whether the race has come too early for a horse who only made his debut in April, but it was difficult not to be impressed by his Australian debut, particularly the sustained pressure he absorbed before refusing to surrender in the straight.

Having been forced forward from a wide barrier, Point Of Law contested a strong early tempo before taking control approaching the home turn. He looked vulnerable late as Small Fry and Omni Man began their challenges, but continued to find under Ethan Brown, holding the former by half a length. It was a significant performance against older, established stayers, particularly for a youngster having just his fifth career start and his first Australian race-day experience.

His European form had already established him as a serious staying prospect. The son of Frankel won the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy over 2615m at Newmarket in July, having previously finished a creditable fourth in the Group 2 Queen's Vase over 2846m at Royal Ascot. Those performances provide some encouragement about his ability to handle the rise to 3200m, although the Melbourne Cup will present a very different examination of his stamina, particularly after such a demanding Geelong victory.

Despite receiving a 2kg penalty for that triumph, Point Of Law carries only 53kg on Tuesday, two kilograms less than he shouldered at Geelong. Barrier nine is another significant positive, giving Brown the option of settling closer to the speed without being forced to work as hard as he did from the wide gate last start. He's shown enough tactical versatility to suggest connections won't need to adopt an all-out attacking approach, and a more economical run could make him even more dangerous over the final stages.

The Maher and Brown partnership has become a formidable force, with Brown striking at 25% for the stable this season and having ridden 32 winners for the team over the past 12 months, returning an ROI just below 72%. Point Of Law is still learning his craft and has to prove himself at two miles, but the Geelong Cup performance was exceptional for a horse of his experience, and there's every reason to expect further improvement. He's a deserving favourite and the one to beat in the 2026 Melbourne Cup.

Melbourne Cup 2026 Next Best Bet - Trustyourinstinct

The most appealing aspect of Trustyourinstinct is his ability to produce a genuine turn of foot at the end of a staying contest, a quality that can prove decisive in the Melbourne Cup when the tempo allows horses to settle before building into the race. The Joseph O'Brien-trained gelding has developed into a high-class European stayer this season, and his Group 2 Curragh Cup victory in July demonstrated exactly why he's such an intriguing contender.

Held up at the rear of the six-runner field over 2816m, Trustyourinstinct was still last approaching the business end before unleashing a sharp finishing burst to claim victory by three-quarters of a length. He defeated Happy Pharoah, with the highly regarded Al Riffa back in third, producing a change of speed rarely associated with a genuine staying horse. The strength of that finishing effort makes him particularly dangerous if James McDonald can have him travelling comfortably approaching the Flemington straight.

His final European appearance came in the Group 1 Irish St Leger over the same distance on September 13, finishing fourth behind Scandinavia, Queenstown and Jan Brueghel. Although beaten four and a half lengths, that was strong opposition, and his broader form includes previous placings behind Jan Brueghel, Continuous and Los Angeles. He's won twice this year and has been remarkably consistent against accomplished stayers, suggesting he brings genuine Group 1 credentials rather than merely an attractive international reputation.

The Curragh Cup also provides an interesting historical connection for O'Brien, whose previous Melbourne Cup winners Rekindling and Twilight Payment both won that race before their Flemington triumphs. The trainer has described Trustyourinstinct as a hold-up horse with a strong finishing kick, and the booking of McDonald is particularly encouraging. The champion jockey knows exactly how to navigate a Melbourne Cup, having produced Verry Elleegant to a commanding victory in 2021, although barrier 18 and the gelding's 57kg impost leave him with plenty to overcome.

There remains a question about his ability to reproduce that acceleration at the end of 3200m against a capacity field, while the possibility of rain is another consideration given his preference for a sound surface. However, he's an accomplished and relatively lightly raced stayer for his age, with the right racing style to be a major factor if the contest develops in his favour. If McDonald can secure cover, conserve his energy and delay the challenge until the right moment, Trustyourinstinct has the turn of foot to make a serious impression.

Melbourne Cup 2026 Value Bet - Zakouma

Ever since Zakouma secured his Melbourne Cup berth with victory in the Listed Andrew Ramsden Stakes over 2800m at Flemington on May 16, the first Tuesday in November has been the priority for connections. With his place guaranteed, Grahame Begg has had the luxury of preparing the gelding specifically for this race rather than chasing qualification through the spring, and that makes his recent form worth assessing in a different light.

His first-up sixth in the Listed Heatherlie Stakes was encouraging, particularly given the form surrounding subsequent Caulfield Cup winner Kingswood, while he again made ground in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes over 2000m. The next assignment came in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes over 2400m, where he finished fifth after making a sustained effort from off the speed. He was beaten less than two and a half lengths, and there was enough in the performance to suggest his preparation was progressing as intended.

Begg then elected to give him another race-day outing in the Crystal Mile on Cox Plate Day, dropping sharply from 2400m to 1600m against considerably sharper opposition. The race developed in a manner that gave Zakouma little opportunity to make an impression, and he finished last behind Surfin' Bird, but that result needs to be viewed in the context of his preparation. A slowly run mile was always going to be an unsuitable assignment for a horse whose main target was still ten days away, and I'm happy to treat the run primarily as a fitness exercise.

He now gets down to just 52kg, with William Pike retaining the ride after an outstanding Melbourne spring that has included Group 1 victories aboard Cosmic Crusader in both the Turnbull Stakes and Cox Plate. Barrier ten should provide opportunities to find cover and allow Zakouma to build into the contest, while his record of two wins from four Flemington appearances is another positive. Most importantly, he's already proven capable over 2800m at this circuit, and the additional 400m appears well within his scope.

Whether he possesses the class to match the leading international stayers remains the obvious query, but his pedigree offers encouragement. The son of Crowded House is out of the Zabeel mare Dar Es Salaam, a full sister to Group 1 classic winners Gondokoro and Zabeelionaire, who claimed the Queensland Oaks and South Australian Derby respectively. The foundation for a strong staying performance is there, and with a light weight, a deliberately managed preparation and proven Flemington form, Zakouma appeals as an overlooked each-way contender.

2026 Melbourne Cup - Field & Odds

No.	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Barrier	Weight	Odds
1	Sons And Lovers (GB)	Joseph O'Brien	Dylan Browne McMonagle	3	57.5kg	$21
2	Trustyourinstinct (IRE)	Joseph O'Brien	James McDonald	18	57kg	$7.50
3	Knight's Choice	John Symons & Sheila Laxon	Robbie Dolan	2	56.5kg	$34
4	Middle Earth (GB)	Ciaron Maher	Mark Zahra	1	56.5kg	$13
5	Vauban (FR)	Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	Jordan Childs	22	56.5kg	$51
6	Enfjaar (IRE)	Roger Varian	Ray Dawson	8	56kg	$21
7	Royal Supremacy (IRE)	Ciaron Maher	Ben Allen	21	56kg	$51
8	Wine Dark Sea (GB)	Harry Charlton	Damian Lane	23	56kg	$51
9	Asterix (NZ)	Chris Waller	Jye McNeil	6	55kg	$81
10	Goodie Two Shoes (IRE)	Joseph O'Brien	Wayne Lordan	19	55kg	$26
11	Juja Kibo (IRE)	Ciaron Maher	Sam Clipperton	14	55kg	$12
12	Hopewell Rock (IRE)	George Boughey	Zac Lloyd	15	54.5kg	$10
13	Onesmoothoperator (USA)	Tim Fitzsimmons	Declan Bates	13	54.5kg	$91
14	Soul Of Spain (IRE)	Chris Waller	Tommy Berry	5	54.5kg	$41
15	Zahrann (IRE)	Ciaron Maher	Ben Melham	11	54.5kg	$26
16	So You Are	Bjorn Baker	Rachel King	7	54kg	$18
17	Future History (GB)	Gregory Hickman	Jamie Melham	12	53.5kg	$51
18	James J Braddock (GB)	Joseph O'Brien	Craig Williams	24	53.5kg	$13
19	Kizlyar (IRE)	Joseph O'Brien	Beau Mertens	20	53.5kg	$34
20	Point Of Law (GB)	Ciaron Maher	Ethan Brown	9	53kg	$6.50
21	Strictly Business	Thomas Carberry	Michael Dee	4	53kg	$91
22	Mr Monaco (GB)	Ciaron Maher	Jabez Johnstone (a)	16	52.5kg	$26
23	Zakouma	Grahame Begg	William Pike	10	52kg	$34
24	Shockletz (NZ)	Ciaron Maher	Harry Coffey	17	51kg	$11

Odds courtesy of CrownBet & correct on 31/10/2026.

Verdict

Melbourne Cup

Our tips for the 2026 Melbourne Cup are:

Point Of Law

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Trustyourinstinct

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Zakouma

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