VRC Oaks 2026 Betting Tips - Will Proxima Dea Keep Her Perfect Record?
The 2026 VRC Oaks at Flemington on 5 November features Proxima Dea as the leading tip to win. Unbeaten in five starts, she arrives off a dominant Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes victory, with her form further boosted by rivals performing well in subsequent major races. Despite drawing barrier 19, her proven stamina, strong pedigree as a full sister to Queensland Oaks winner Gypsy Goddess, and versatility in running position make her the standout. Salann is suggested as a value each-way option, while Refuse To Curtsy is highlighted as a roughie with improving form and strong family connections.
- Proxima Dea is tipped to win the 2026 VRC Oaks, unbeaten and strong at 2000m
- Salann is suggested each-way, peaking at the right time against quality rivals
- Refuse To Curtsy is a value each-way chance, with improving form and proven family success
The VRC Oaks takes centre stage at Flemington on Thursday, November 5, with Australia's leading three-year-old fillies chasing Group 1 glory on the third day of the 2026 Melbourne Cup Carnival.
2026 VRC Oaks Tips
2026 VRC Oaks Best Bet - Proxima Dea
There has been some market drift for Proxima Dea following the barrier draw, with the unbeaten filly easing from an odds-on quote, but she remains the clear starting point for Thursday's VRC Oaks. David Payne has carefully managed her first racing campaign with this 2500m feature firmly in mind, and she arrives at Flemington chasing a remarkable sixth consecutive victory.
After completing a hat-trick on August 29, Proxima Dea was given a freshen-up before returning at the same 1800m distance in the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes. She continued her winning sequence despite the break, then stepped up to 2000m for the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick, where she comfortably accounted for the colts and geldings, defeating Global Goal by a length and a half.
That Spring Champion Stakes form has only strengthened since. Global Goal had previously beaten Oaks rival De Armas in the Group 1 Flight Stakes, while Stormy Marco, fourth behind Proxima Dea at Randwick, returned to Flemington last Saturday to claim the Victoria Derby over 2500m. They're excellent references for a filly now dropping back against her own sex, particularly given the authority of her latest victory.
The way she handled her first attempt at 2000m strongly suggests the additional 500m won't be an issue, with Proxima Dea maintaining her momentum through the line rather than simply relying on a sharp turn of foot. Her pedigree provides further encouragement, being by Victoria Derby winner Tarzino and a full sister to Gypsy Goddess, who claimed the Queensland Oaks in 2022. Staying ability is certainly not lacking on either side of that family connection.
Barrier 19 is the obvious concern, with Zac Lloyd potentially needing to make an early decision about where to position her in a large field. However, she's demonstrated enough versatility and professionalism throughout her unbeaten career to suggest she can overcome an awkward draw, particularly over a distance that should give her time to find a suitable position. The gate has also helped push her out to a more attractive price, and she remains the one they all have to beat.
2026 VRC Oaks Value Bet - Salann
Whether Salann is absolutely looking for 2500m remains a legitimate question, but the generous odds available make that a risk worth considering in Thursday's VRC Oaks. The Ben Brisbourne-trained filly showed considerable promise during her first preparation, finishing runner-up in both appearances, with subsequent form through Satono Glow and Diameter suggesting there was genuine merit in those performances.
Her second campaign began considerably slower, although there were excuses when she resumed in a strong Bendigo maiden and found herself racing on an inferior section of the track. She then struggled on a Heavy 10 surface in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes, leaving plenty of improvement required as she progressed towards the major spring features.
That improvement began to emerge in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas, where Salann substantially outperformed her triple-figure starting price. Settling towards the rear in a race that favoured those closer to the speed, she worked home strongly into sixth, finishing three and a half lengths behind Saintly Dancer. Against the race shape, she ran the fastest last 600m, 400m and 200m of the Thousand Guineas.
She took another step forward in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase at Flemington on October 24, finishing third behind True Rebel and Skua over 2040m. Importantly, she was taking on the colts and geldings that day and was beaten only two and a quarter lengths, providing a valuable staying reference before returning to competition against her own sex. With True Rebel among the leading Victoria Derby contenders, that performance deserves considerably more respect than the early Oaks market appears to give it.
The daughter of Shamus Award now reaches 2500m with Rachel King retaining the ride, and the pair have developed a useful understanding during this preparation. There's still a question about whether she can produce the same finish over this trip, but her recent performances suggest she's peaking at the right time, and the form around her has been stronger than her price implies.
2026 VRC Oaks Roughie - Refuse To Curtsy
There are some familiar connections chasing VRC Oaks success with Refuse To Curtsy, as Thomas Carberry and John Allen look to repeat last year's triumph with Strictly Business. The daughter of Royal Meeting is a younger half-sister to that Group 1 winner, giving connections a remarkable opportunity to claim consecutive editions of the staying classic with members of the same family.
Refuse To Curtsy showed ability in her early jump-outs but wasn't quite seasoned enough during her two-year-old campaign, and it has taken time for her to put everything together on race day. She's progressed encouragingly this preparation, improving from a fourth placing on resumption to break through convincingly over 1450m at Kilmore on September 28, showing the benefit of that earlier experience.
She then made a significant leap in distance and class for the Group 3 Ethereal Stakes over 2000m at Caulfield on October 17, where she finished a competitive third behind Quick Finish and Your Colour. That effort was particularly encouraging given she was coming straight from maiden company over 1450m, yet still measured up against fillies with stronger credentials and more established staying form.
The form has subsequently received another boost, with Quick Finish backing up to finish third in last Saturday's Victoria Derby over 2500m at Flemington. That provides an excellent reference for Refuse To Curtsy, who was beaten only a length in the Ethereal Stakes, while Your Colour also holds a considerably shorter quote in the Oaks market. On those comparisons alone, the Carberry-trained filly has every right to be considered a genuine knockout chance.
Connections have elected to bypass the traditional Wakeful Stakes lead-up, suggesting they're satisfied with her condition heading into Thursday's feature. That decision makes sense given the substantial rise in distance she negotiated last time, and the additional time between runs should help her recover from that demanding assignment. She still has to prove herself over 2500m, but her pedigree, improving form and the stable's recent Oaks success make her an appealing roughie at a generous price.
2026 VRC Oaks - Field & Odds
| No. | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Barrier | Weight | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Proxima Dea | David Payne | Zac Lloyd | 19 | 56kg | $2.70 |
| 2 | Icelady | Ciaron Maher | Ethan Brown | 4 | 56kg | $7 |
| 3 | Quick Finish | Tony & Calvin McEvoy | Jye McNeil | 5 | 56kg | $15 |
| 4 | De Armas (NZ) | Chris Waller | James McDonald | 1 | 56kg | $2.90 |
| 5 | Voynichese | Nick Olive | Declan Bates | 7 | 56kg | $51 |
| 6 | Salann | Ben Brisbourne | Rachel King | 12 | 56kg | $41 |
| 7 | Churchill Rose | Andrew Gluyas | Craig Williams | 10 | 56kg | $34 |
| 8 | Your Colour | Chris Waller | Blake Shinn | 14 | 56kg | $26 |
| 9 | Joely | Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | Kerrin McEvoy | 18 | 56kg | $51 |
| 10 | Expensive Taste | Tony & Calvin McEvoy | Luke Currie | 11 | 56kg | $101 |
| 11 | Notified | Archie Alexander | Billy Egan | 15 | 56kg | $81 |
| 12 | Refuse To Curtsy | Thomas Carberry | John Allen | 13 | 56kg | $51 |
| 13 | Nikitria | Clinton McDonald | Ben Melham | 16 | 56kg | $67 |
| 14 | Waiheke Rose (NZ) | Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | Jordan Childs | 6 | 56kg | $41 |
| 15 | Tharwa | Chris Waller | Damian Lane | 17 | 56kg | $26 |
| 16 | Shameful Impulse | Rob Blacker | William Pike | 8 | 56kg | $51 |
| 17e | Quynh | Emma-Lee & David Browne | TBA | 3 | 56kg | $91 |
| 18e | Little Ally Bama | Andrew Bobbin | Linda Meech | 2 | 56kg | $91 |
| 19e | Courting | Tony & Calvin McEvoy | TBA | 20 | 56kg | $91 |
| 20e | Chocolate Freckles | Pat Carey & Harris Walker | Celine Gaudray | 9 | 56kg | $126 |
Odds provided by Betr & correct on 03/11/2026.
Verdict
Our tips for the 2026 VRC Oaks are:
Proxima Dea
To Win
@17/10 - 6 Units
£30 Free Bet
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Salann
Each Way
@40/1 - 3 Units
£25 Free Bet Refund
with promo code NEWBONUS
Join betTOM with promo code NEWBONUS and get access to their Β£25 Free Bet Refunds offer. 18+ only. T&Cs apply.
Refuse To Curtsy
Each Way
@50/1 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £10
with promo code NEWBONUS
Join betgoodwin with promo code NEWBONUS and get access to their Bet Β£10 Get Β£10 as a free ACCA welcome offer. 18+ only. T&Cs apply.
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