91 Showlhs N
2023 Falmouth Stakes Tips & Predictions
|Date||Friday July 14, 2023|
|Race Type||Set weights|
|Age||3YO fillies and mares|
Newmarket's July Festival is packed with great racing and the Falmouth Stakes is one of the Group 1 races carded.
The Falmouth Stakes is open for fillies and mares over the 1-mile distance. The July Festival second-day feature has produced some quality winners in the past including Goldikova and two-time winner Soviet Song.
Falmouth Stakes Day Card
|1:15pm||Maiden Stakes||Class 3|
|1:50pm||bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap)||Class 2|
|2:25pm||Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes||Group 2|
|3:00pm||bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap)||Class 2|
|3:35pm||Falmouth Stakes||Group 1|
|4:10pm||Racing TV Handicap||Class 3|
|4:45pm||Moet & Chandon Handicap||Class 3|
Falmouth Stakes betting selections & tips
We will have expert tips for the Falmouth Stakes available when the final-field markets are released by bookmakers.
Falmouth Stakes history
Named in honour of Evelyn Boscawen, 6th Viscount Falmouth, the Falmouth Stakes started in 1911 and has been featured in the July Festival for many years.
It was originally a Group 3 before progressing to Group 2 level in 1987. Group 1 status was ultimately achieved in 2004 when Soviet Song won the first of consecutive wins.
Soviet Song was only the second runner to win back-to-back Falmouth Stakes after Sonic Lady won in 1986 and 1987.
Lester Piggott is the leading jockey with seven wins, but on his heels is Ryan Moore, who has three of the last four Falmouth Stakes.
Moore won on Integral in 2014 and followed that up with victories aboard Alice Springs and Poly Poly in 2016 and 2017.
Trainer James Fanshaw scored three consecutive wins from 2003-2005. Fanshaw trained Macadamia and Soviet Song.
Richard Hannon Sr also won it three consecutive times with Niche, Lemon Souffle and Caramba.
It has often been the starting point to a successful career for especially the fillies. Goldikova won in 2009 before later winning the Breeders' Cup Mile for the third time in 2010.
Winners often compete in the Matron Stakes or Sun Chariot Stakes following the Falmouth Stakes.
Falmouth Stakes betting guide
The 2016 and 2017 races went to the well-backed runners, with Roly Poly winning at 6/4 and Alice Springs winning as the second favourite at 5/2, but the Falmouth Stakes isn't a favourites race.
Goldikova (7/4) is the only other favourite to have won in the last 12 years and there have been some value winners along the way.
Nahoodh paid 10/1 with Frankie Dettori in the saddle in 2008 and Music Show was a 13/2 winner in 2010.
Timepiece (16/1) and Girofra (10/1) scored consecutive victories as double-figure chances and both had one at least one start that season.
Winning form isn't always great form for the Falmouth Stakes. Of the last 12 winners, only four had one previously that season from a combined 33 starts.
It's clear that these fillies and mares need time to mature for the Falmouth Stakes, so bettors should be looking for the improved runners as opposed to those that have been winning.
Only Giofra has won from outside of barrier nine in recent history, so drawing a good barrier can be key.
Falmouth Stakes trends
- Three of the last 12 winners have been favourites and only five of the last 12 winners were top three in the betting market.
- Course knowledge is key with the Falmouth Stakes as nine of the previous 12 winners have had at least one run at Newmarket prior to winning.
- Despite a number of upset winners, 10 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 110 or higher.
- 10 of the last 12 winners have had at least two runs that season. Only Goldikova and Elusive Kate had one run leading into the race, with Elusive Kate defeating a field of only four runners.
Recent Falmouth Stakes winners
|1990||Chimes of Freedom|