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2026 Kentucky Derby Tips - Best Bets, Odds and Predictions

Jon Vine

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Last updated: Wed 29 Apr 2026 09:01

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Jon Vine 29 Apr 2026

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Free guide to the 2026 Kentucky Derby
This famous Classic will be run at Churchill Downs on May 2nd
So Happy and Incredibolt feature in our selections

Expired

The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. (Getty)

Here's our free guide to the 152nd Kentucky Derby, which headlines an excellent card at Churchill Downs on Saturday night.

A capacity field of 20 top thoroughbreds will contest the "run for the roses" late on Saturday night (BST). Here's the latest betting, the full draw and our top betting tips for the 2026 Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Odds

Name	Odds
Renegade	9/2
Commandment	5/1
Further Ado	6/1
Chief Wallabee	7/1
The Puma	10/1
So Happy	14/1
Bar	16/1

Odds taken on 29.4.26

Speed Analysis

The pace is always fast in the Kentucky Derby, and this year's contest should be no different. Bhupat Seemar's raider Six Speed is a confirmed front-runner, and he'll have to break quickly from his wide gate in stall 17. Bob Baffert's duo of Potente and Litmus Test could help push the pace, along with Doug O'Neill's Pavlovian.

Mystik Dan managed to win from a prominent position two years ago. However, more often than not, the early pace collapses, allowing closers to claim Classic glory. Any horse will need luck to come through a 20-horse field, but hold-up tactics often work out well in the Kentucky Derby.

Renegade and Commandment sit atop the betting, and both are sure to employ such tactics. Renegade was the most impressive trial winner, but his cause hasn't been helped by a potentially tricky draw in stall one. Commandment was fortunate to beat The Puma on a head-bob in the Florida Derby, and the runner-up that day represents much better value than the winner at the current prices.

2026 Kentucky Derby Tip 1 - So Happy

I was really taken with SO HAPPY'S (14/1) performance in the Santa Anita Derby. Mark Glatt's star was sent off at 7/1 behind favourite Potente, having raced too close to an unsustainable pace when third behind that rival in the San Felipe Stakes.

Having been held up in the San Felipe, Potente then made the running at Santa Anita. Mike Smith gave So Happy a more patient ride, sitting in the second rank for most of the race. So Happy pulled upsides the front-running favourite around the final bend, before stretching three lengths clear of Potente with a smart burst of speed in the closing stages.

The way So Happy hit the line that day will have given Glatt plenty of hope that he'll get the mile-and-a-quarter trip. Glatt reported that his contender had settled well in Louisville having been shipped over from California. I think this son of Runhappy can find further improvement and mount a strong challenge in Saturday's feature at Churchill Downs.

Kentucky Derby Full Draw

Draw	Name	Trainer	Jockey
1	Renegade	Todd Pletcher	Irad Ortiz Jr
2	Albus	Riley Mott	Manuel Franco
3	Intrepido	Jeff Mullins	Hector Berrios
4	Litmus Test	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia
5	Right To Party	Kenneth McPeek	Christopher Elliott
6	Commandment	Brad Cox	Luis Saez
7	Danon Bourbon	Manabu Ikezoe	Atsuya Nishimura
8	So Happy	Mark Glatt	Mike Smith
9	The Puma	Gustavo Delgado	Javier Castellano
10	Wonder Dean	Daisuke Takayanagi	Ryusei Sakai
11	Incredibolt	Riley Mott	Jaime A Torres
12	Chief Wallabee	William Mott	Junior Alvarado
13	Silent Tactic	Mark Casse	Cristian A Torres
14	Potente	Bob Baffert	Juan Hernandez
15	Emerging Market	Chad Brown	Flavien Prat
16	Pavlovian	Doug O'Neill	Edwin A Maldonado
17	Six Speed	Bhupat Seemar	Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr
18	Further Ado	Brad Cox	John Velazquez
19	Golden Tempo	Cherie DeVaux	Jose L Ortiz
20	Fulleffort	Brad Cox	Tyler Gaffalione

2026 Kentucky Derby Tip 2 - Incredibolt

Riley Mott, son of two-time Derby-winning trainer Billy Mott, will have his first two Classic runners on Saturday. Jamie Torres has opted to retain his partnership with INCREDIBOLT (25/1), rather than ride Wood Memorial winner Albus.

Course form will have played a big part in Torres' selection. Incredibolt has won both of his previous starts around Churchill Downs, scoring in a maiden before a comfortable success in the Street Sense Stakes back in October.

Following a complete no-show in the Holy Bull, Torres' mount bounced back with a power-packed victory in the Virginia Derby. Incredibolt travelled nicely in the middle-rank, weaving his way into contention upon entering the home straight, before streaking four lengths clear of a decent field.

Torres has experience riding Classic winners, having steered Seize The Grey to Preakness Stakes glory in 2024. He seemed confident after the Virginia Derby that Incredibolt would rise to the Kentucky Derby challenge, and Mott's challenger represents good value at his current price.

Live Stream

Visit our Kentucky Derby Live Stream page if you want to watch this US Classic via a mobile or tablet.

Kentucky Derby 2026 FAQs

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby?

The 2026 Kentucky Derby takes place on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. This year's Kentucky Derby will be run on May 2nd.

What is the Kentucky Derby?

The Kentucky Derby is a famous horse race for three-year-old Thoroughbreds, held each year at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Run over 1¼ miles, it is the first leg of the Triple Crown and features up to 20 horses. Known as the “Run for the Roses,” it’s one of the biggest and most prestigious events in horse racing.

What races qualify horses for the Kentucky Derby?

Horses qualify through the Road to the Kentucky Derby, earning points in prep races such as the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial.

How many horses run in the Kentucky Derby?

Up to 20 horses can compete in the Kentucky Derby, making it one of the largest fields in top-level horse racing.

Who will win the Kentucky Derby?

This year's renewal of the Kentucky Derby looks as open as ever. You can read free previews of the race on many different sites, including RacingInsider.com.

Where can I watch the Kentucky Derby?

You can watch the Kentucky Derby live on NBC in the US (with live streaming on Peacock) and on AtTheRaces in the UK, with live streaming available via ITVX. It’s also streamed on various racing and betting platforms worldwide. Visit our website for more live streaming info.

Verdict

2026 Kentucky Derby

So Happy and Incredibolt are our two against the field in the 2026 Kentucky Derby.

So Happy

2026 Kentucky Derby Tip 1

@14/1 - 5 Units

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Incredibolt

2026 Kentucky Derby Tip 2

@25/1 - 5 Units

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