2026 Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends - Andy Newton analyses Saturday's big race
Quebecois is the selection for the 2026 Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham, with several key trends in his favour. Trained by Paul Nicholls, who has won the race four times, Quebecois is expected to carry a competitive weight and has previous Cheltenham form, including a third in the Ultima Chase. He is set to be ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies, a two-time winner of this race. While Quebecois has yet to win over fences, his profile matches many successful past winners, making him a notable contender if he avoids becoming the race favourite.
- Andy Newton's guide to the 2026 Paddy Power Gold Cup
- Paul Nicholls has trained four previous winners and Quebecois fits key trends
- Quebecois has Cheltenham form and should carry a competitive weight if Matata runs
Andy Newton provides his guide to the 2026 Paddy Power Gold Cup, including vital trends and a horse to back.
For me the National Hunt action really kicks into gear this weekend with the Cheltenham November Meeting – three days of top hedge-hopping action and all at the home of jumps races… What more could you want?
There are many good contests dotted over the fixture, including the return of Jonbon, now aged 11, in the Shloer Chase on Friday – a prize this JP McManus star has won twice in the past despite many people saying he hates Prestbury Park.
While on Sunday, the Greatwood Hurdle is the standout event – a race that we’ll hopefully see the Harry Fry-trained Idaho Sun back from the setback that saw him miss all the big Festival last season.
However, the main race for many is Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup – a contest the bookie has been backing (on and off) since 2003.
Once the final decs are out I’ll be giving my final 1-2-3 best bets over at Racing Ahead, plus for more regular info you can see my DAILY CHEAT SHEET – which is jam-packed with trends, stats and my famous ‘muggy favs’ acca each day.
But leading up to the Paddy Power Gold Cup, what we can do now is have a few key trends in our heads – ready for when the final runners come out.
We can then use the past runnings of the race to help put history on our side and hopefully whittle down the runners to those with the best profiles.
Let’s get going!
2026 Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends and Analysis
Previous Cheltenham Experience a Must
Okay, the bulk of the Paddy Power Gold Cup runners are going to tick this stat – but it’s still worth noting that a stonking 23 of the last 24 winners had raced at Cheltenham before.
These four fall down here – Norn Iron, Issam, Dunkerque and Classic Maestro.
The Last Irish-Trained Winner Was In 2009
Despite the Irish domination of the Cheltenham Festival in March – the good news for the home trainers is they’ve not done that well in this contest.
Yes, they clearly don’t send over the army they will in four months – however, the fact remains the last Irish Paddy Power Gold Cup winner was Tranquil Sea for the late Edward O’Grady.
Meaning the last 16 renewals have gone to a British-trained yard.
Last year the race was actually littered with Irish runner – Coming Up Easy and Theatre Native (Henry De Bromhead), Thecompanysergeant and The Other Mozzie (Gavin Cromwell), plus Conyers Hill (Paul Nolan).
With the last-named doing best with a fourth-place finish.
This year’s Irish runners could be July Flower and Zurich for Henry De Bromhead and Release The Beast for Paul Nolan.
So - Who Are The Best Trainers?
Well, the now retired Martin Pipe is the winning-most handler with eight successes and son David carried the family run on in 2011 when his Great Endeavour landed the spoils.
Champion trainer Dan Skelton took the race for the first time 12 months ago with Panic Attack and will be trying to follow-up for the same owners with Madara.
But it’s Skelton’s former mentor Paul Nicholls who has the best recent record – winning two of the last three and four in total.
Plus, has saddled 14 placed horses in the race from his last 50 too.
Nicholls will be pinning his hopes of a fifth win on Quebecois, with Sam Twiston-Davis, who has won this race twice (once for Nicholls, Caid Du Berlais).
He’s 0-7 still over fences but has been runner-up in four of those – not to mention a decent third in the Ultima Chase here at the Festival and is only rated 2lbs higher this time.
Jonjo O’Neill Feared Too
Despite never winning this race as a jockey, Jonjo O’Neill has made up for that as a trainer.
The local handler has mopped up three Paddy Power Gold Cup wins over the years – with his first in 2006 with the AP McCoy-ridden Exotic Dancer. Then added to this with Johns Spirit in 2013 and Taquin Du Seuill in 2016.
Now with son AJ on the licence, they will be looking for their first win as a partnership – with their Ultima Chase winner Johnnywho their main hope.
He’s only 4lbs higher here and has since run a fine 4th in the Grand National – he’ll be looking to also give owner JP McManus a first Paddy Power win.
Be Wary Of The Paddy Power Gold Cup Jolly
Most year’s this 2m4f handicap chase is a well-contested and competitive one – and this is probably why the favourites record is well below the average.
In the last 24 runnings, the race has only produced FOUR winning market leaders, with the most recent Stage Star in 2023 (4/1 fav).
But he’s the only winning jolly in the last 10 years too.
However, despite this, the winners in recent times don’t seem to come too far from the top of the market.
Yes, we had Splash Of Ginge go in at 25/1 in 2017, but in the last 10 years the race has seen 90% of winners return 14/1 or less.
While 60% have even been 9/1 or shorter – backed up again last year with Panic Attack returning 6/1 and beating the favourite Vincenzo into second.
A lot can change between now and the weekend, but those likely to be sent off favourite are Festival Jack Richards winner Meetmebythesea or the Skelton pair of Madara and Blueking d’Oroux.
Weight Stops Trains in the Paddy Power Gold Cup
The final trend to have on your radar is the weight carried – with this event being a handicap.
In the last 24 runnings, the race has seen 17 winners carry 11st 1lb or less – backed up again in 2025 with Madara carrying bang-on that burden (11st 1lb).
Seven of the last nine winners also ticked this weight stat – with only Stage Star (11st 7lbs) and Midnight Shadow (11st 5lbs) carrying more.
At this stage, there are some big names at the top of the weights – with Matata, Madara, Meetmebythesea, Johnnywho, Blueking d’Oroux and Riskintheground all possibles to carry more than 11st 1lbs.
Summary
So hopefully these stats will help once the final runners are out. But even though he falls down on never winning a race over fences, the Paul Nicholls-trained QUEBECOIS does seem to have a lot of the other trends in his corner.
Not only is he trained by a four-time winner, but he’ll be also ridden by a two-time winner of the race in Sam Twiston-Davies.
Plus, should get in here with 11st (as long as the 155-rated Matata runs) and is only 2lbs higher than when third in the Ultima here at the Festival.
Therefore, we also know he’s handled the Old Course well in the past.
He’s hovering just behind the market leaders – so, remember, with only four jollies winning in the last 24 – let’s just hope he’s not backed into the favourites berth!
Good Luck.
Recent Paddy Power Gold Cup Winners
- 2025 - Panic Attack (6/1)
- 2024 - Il Ridoto (10/1)
- 2023 - Stage Star (4/1 fav)
- 2022 - GA Law (5/1)
- 2021 - Midnight Shadow (9/1)
- 2020 - Coole Cody (10/1)
- 2019 - Happy Diva (14/1)
- 2018 - Baron Alco (8/1)
- 2017 - Splash Of Ginge (25/1)
- 2016 - Taquin Du Seuill (8/1)
Get To Know Andy Newton
Read our Life In Racing Interview with Andy Newton, which was published on the site a couple of weeks ago...
Verdict
Quebecois is Andy Newton's selection in the 2026 Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Quebecois
2026 Paddy Power Gold Cup
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