2025 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Tips - Japan finally victorious in good ground Arc?
The 2025 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe could see a breakthrough for Japanese racing as firm ground conditions align perfectly with their contenders’ preferences. Standout colt Croix Du Nord, winner of the Japanese Derby and top two-year-old honors, overcame soft ground for a narrow victory in France despite being only 75% fit. With improved fitness and ideal ground, he stands out as great value at 10/1. The article emphasizes his strong credentials and why Japanese fans are especially excited this year.
- Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe expected on good ground, favoring Japanese horses
- Croix Du Nord is Japan's leading contender at 10/1 after strong performances
- Improved fitness and better conditions boost Japanese hopes for an Arc victory
The sticking point for Japanese horses coming over to France for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is often the ground. Seldom do top races take place on going slower than Good-To-Firm in Japan, whereas the weather and watering processes in France usually guarantees very soft ground.
However, a quick glance at the long-term weather forecast for Arc week paints a very different picture. There's hardly any rain in the forecast leading up to the weekend, meaning we might actually get to see a Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe run on decent ground.
2025 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Tips - Croix Du Nord
This news will sound like music in the ears of Japanese racing fans - who've longed for a winner of the Arc for the best part of two decades. Byzantine Dream and Alohi Alii will fly the flag for Japan, but there's no doubting that the Captain of the Japanese raiding party is CROIX DU NORD (10/1).
Takashi Saito's star earned the title of the Top Two-Year-Old in Japan in 2024, thanks to victories in the Hai Nisai and the prestigious Hopeful Stakes. Following a shock defeat as the 1/2 favourite in the Japanese 2000 Guineas - run over ten furlongs - Croix Du Nord righted that wrong in the Japanese Derby, where the market leader travelled comfortably behind a decent pace, and powered home down the outside of the leaders to claim Classic glory.
Saito immediately identified the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe as Croix Du Nord's next goal, and subsequently put his star away for the summer. Yuichi Kitamura's mount made his French debut in the ten-furlong Prix du Prince D'Orange the weekend after Arc Trials day at Longchamp, and Croix du Nord kept on well to claim a narrow victory over Daryz.
Croix Du Nord clearly didn't enjoy the very soft ground that day and, by his trainer's own admission, was only 75% fit. So, to handle the occasion and the ground conditions, and be strong enough in the finish to repel a quality operator like Daryz, was hugely impressive.
Saito's star will strip much fitter for that return to action. The step back up to a mile-and-a-half will suit and, if the weather forecast is to be believed, ground conditions should be ideal. Croix Du Nord is still available at 10/1 - a price which surely won't last once the World Pool bettors sink their teeth into the Arc market.
I've cashed out this bet. The weather forecast suggests that the ground will actually be soft, and Croix Du Nord was drawn in the car park. Run for the hills!
*Update*
I've cashed out this bet. The weather forecast suggests that the ground will actually be soft, and Croix Du Nord was drawn in the car park. Run for the hills!
Verdict
With a name meaning Northern Cross in French, and several Arc winners featuring in his lineage, Croix Du Nord could hand Japanese racing what they covet the most - a victory in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe!
Croix Du Nord
2025 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Tips
@10/1 - 5 Units
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