The 2025 Grand National is approaching, with 34 contenders vying for the win. Key trends from past races suggest that certain criteria are critical for success. While no horse has fulfilled all 13 key trends, Beauport and Vanillier lead as top contenders. Their strengths align with common winning traits, although carrying slightly more weight or previous course experience may affect results. Punters should consider these historical patterns in their betting strategies.
Key trends and stats ahead for the 2025 Grand National
This famous handicap takes place at Aintree on Saturday 5th April
Vanillier and Beauport came out best at the trends
Vanillier (grey) finishing second to Corach Rambler in the 2023 Grand National. (Getty)
We're now just a week away from the 2025 renewal of the Grand National. The final field may have been reduced to 34 runners, but we can still look forward to a fantastic renewal of this famous handicap come April 5th.
Before the previous two Grand Nationals, I've gathered a list of key recurring ten-year trends that could help point punters in the right direction. 2023 winner, Corach Rambler ticked off 11 of the key trends, as did last year's winner I Am Maximus. However, none of the top three trends performers in 2023 finished inside the first ten and last year's trendsetter, Galia Des Liteaux finished eighth, so coming out well against the trends doesn't guarantee Grand National success.
Here are those key trends again, with I Am Maximus' information added, and a look at how this year's entrants' perform against the trends.
2025 Grand National Key Trends
12 of the last 12 winners ran in a high-profile race last time out
12 of the last 12 winners had run at least 3 times that season
11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 8 and 11
10 of the last 12 winners had won no more than two handicap chases
10 of the last 12 winners had their last run in February or March
10 of the last 12 winners were rated 146 or higher
10 of the last 12 winners finished no worse than 5th last time out
10 of the last 12 winners had won or placed over 3m2f or further
9 of the last 12 winners had started at least 10 races over fences
9 of the last 12 winners had won that season
9 of the last 12 winners had never run over the Grand National fences before
9 of the last 12 winners had won a chase over at least 3m
8 of the last 12 winners carried 10-13 or less
2025 Grand National Trend Setters
Name
Score
Missing Trend 1
Missing Trend 2
Beauport
12/13
Weight
Vanillier
12/13
GN Course Exp
Nick Rockett
11/13
Weight
Chase Starts
Stumptown
11/13
Weight
Handicap Wins
Minella Cocooner
11/13
Weight
Season Wins
Bravemansgame
11/13
Weight
Season Wins
Chantry House
11/13
3m2f+ Form
Days Since Last Run
Threeunderthrufive
11/13
Season Runs
Season Wins
Perceval Legallois
11/13
Chase Starts
3m2f+ Form
Monbeg Genius
11/13
Handicap Wins
High Profile Race LTO
Hyland
11/13
Chase Starts
3m2f+ Form
Three Card Brag
11/13
Chase Starts
3m2f+ Form
Twig
11/13
Season Wins
Result LTO
No horse achieved a perfect 13/13, but there were two who filled all but one of the trends criteria.
BEAUPORT only missed out on a clean sweep due to his weight, as he'll carry 11-1 into the Grand National. Nigel Twiston-Davies' star has won two regional Nationals and has run well twice in high-profile hurdles races since his reappearance win at Ascot.
Then there's VANILLIER, who's only negative is the fact that he's already run over the Grand National fences. Gavin Cromwell's star finished a close second to Corach Rambler in this race in 2023, but was well-beaten 12 months ago. Vanillier has returned to top form this season and was last seen finishing third behind Stumptown at the Cheltenham Festival.
Stumptown is one of 11 entrants who ticked off 11 of the 13 trends. The joint-favourite missed out on the weight trend and all five of his wins over fences have come in handicap races. Nick Rockett, Bravemansgame and Minella Cocooner are also carrying more than 10-13 and missed out in one other category.
Perceval Legallois, Hyland and Three Card Brag have had less than 10 starts over fences and their stamina is unproven beyond 3m2f. Threeunderthrufive has only run twice this season and only placed on both starts. Monbeg Genius has had more than two previous handicap wins and ran in a low profile race on his most recent start. Chantry House and Twig also failed to tick off two trends.
Beauport winning the Berkshire National Handicap Chase at Ascot in November. (Getty)
2025 Grand National Trends Shirkers
Name
Score
Minella
Indo
7/13
I Am Maxmus
8/13
Iroko
8/13
Idas Boy
8/13
Stay Away Fay
8/13
Minella Drama
8/13
Meetingofthewaters
8/13
Celebre d'Allen
8/13
The horse who came out worse against the trends is former Gold Cup winner and last year's third MINELLA INDO. Henry De Bromhead's 12-year-old is too old, carrying too much weight and poor seasonal form means he only fulfils 7 of the 13 trend criteria.
Iroko and I Am Maximus only scored 8/13, which is a surprise considering their position in the market. I Am Maximus will have to defend his crown under top-weight and his seasonal form hasn't been encouraging. Inexperience is the major downfall for Iroko, who is still yet to win beyond three miles.
Meetingofthewaters, who finished seventh in this race 12 months ago, was another to come out poorly against the trends. Minella Drama. Minella Drama, Stay Away Fay, Idas Boy and Celebre d'Allen also failed to tick off five of the 13 key trends.
Verdict
Beauport and Vanillier are the top trendsetters for the 2025 Grand National.
2023 Grand National Trend Setter: Beauport 2025 Grand National @33/1 at bet365 - 5 Units
Best Bet2: Vanillier 2025 Grand National @12/1 at BOYLE Sports - 5 Units
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