Expert tips for day two of the 2024 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita
Peter Fornatale has published his free day two selections on AtTheRaces
Thorpedo Anna, Fierceness and Notable Speech feature in Peter's tips
The Breeders' Cup at Del Mar. (Getty)
Contents
Breeders' Cup Day Two Expert Tips - Saturday 2nd November
7:00pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
7:41pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
8:21pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Distaff
9:01pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Turf
9:41pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Classic
10:25pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
11:05pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Sprint
11:45pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Mile
12:25pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
The day two card at the Breeders' Cup is one of the most lucrative in world horse racing, with total prize money coming in at over $27m. The Breeders' Cup Classic headlines the card, which also features eight further Group Ones, including the Turf, the Distaff and the Dirt Mile.
In his column with AtTheRaces, US racing expert Peter Fornatale has published his free selections for day two of the 2024 Breeders' Cup...
Breeders' Cup Day Two Expert Tips - Saturday 2nd November
7:00pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
I think WAYS AND MEANS is the sort of backable favourite you can build multiples around.
She was well-hyped even before she set foot on a racecourse. An injury in her two-year-old campaign set her back and she re-emerged on the Oaks trail. In that race, she loomed large before comprehensively not seeing out the trip, causing many observers - including myself - to think we had a Grade 1 sprinter on our hands. And that’s how it played out.
Since turned back in distance she’s won three times as easily as she’s pleased in races that have come back strong on the clock. This will be her first time against her elders, but given Chad Brown’s record of success in this race I am not overly concerned about that.
She is a push-button horse and should be able to get a perfect trip, with the right blend of speed and stamina for this. For exotics, I advise pairing her with Vahva, who currently looks overpriced.
7:41pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
A thrilling renewal of this contest that should go to COGBURN.
Has had a sensational season, unbeaten in three starts that he has won by wide margins in fast times. His 114 Beyer that he earned when winning the Jaipur in course record time is head and shoulders above his compatriots, and this horse hasn’t been out of his comfort zone once this season.
He has tremendous early speed and often breaks like a bullet, so stall nine shouldn’t be a problem, and he just looks to be a very uncomplicated horse. Should be able to make the lead and looks by far the most likely winner to me, although he will be priced accordingly.
Star Of Mystery can follow him home for the exacta, and I might take an each-way flyer on Believing at 15-1 or bigger if it arrives.
8:21pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Distaff
In terms of the winner, THORPEDO ANNA looks the real deal, and if she’s 1-2 or above, you could just go with her.
She is one of the stars of the Breeders’ Cup and I profiled about her at length. Looking at this race, with the defection of Idiomatic it appears that she will be able to really dictate terms on the front end. That should see her to good effect. Trainer Kenny McPeek has been adamant that she was undertrained heading to the Cotillion and now, with time and the screws tightened, she’ll be able to build on that Travers run. If she does, she might win by a pole.
If you are looking for an each-way alternative or exacta partner, I think CANDIED is at least a little interesting, because her price is appealing and her mid-pack closing running style will play nicely with a Thorpedo Anna demolition job over the rest of the field.
9:01pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Turf
A wide-open contest where a case can be made for plenty of the field. Emily Upjohn has been well supported since confirmed for this but the value appears to have gone now despite the fact that her last run has worked out superbly. Luxembourg had a nice prep for this last time in the Irish Champion, while Far Bridge gives the US prospects of keeping the Turf at home.
Rebel’s Romance is the most likely winner at but he’s been well-backed and doesn’t have the easiest draw, so perhaps WINGSPAN can cause an upset.
A beautifully bred filly, Wingspan has improved with each of her six runs this season. Most recently, she achieved another career best in the Filly & Mares Stakes on Champions Day, no match for Kalpana but comfortably beating a very good yardstick in Tiffany into third. That run was on soft ground, which her dam loved, but it’s possible that she’s just getting better under O’Brien’s tutelage.
The master of Ballydoyle does so well with this type and she doesn’t need to find much at all to figure here, while she remains massively unexposed compared to many of these rivals.
9:41pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Classic
What a great race! The draw was the final piece of the puzzle for me to feel good picking FIERCENESS.
May be the best horse of his generation on any continent. He also may be a flat track bully. He won last year’s Juvenile with a stellar speed figure of 105. His run against an overmatched Florida Derby field (where he received a 110) seemed to build on that promise. He has seemingly ditched his “good race, bad race” pattern with consecutive excellent efforts at Saratoga, including a game run in the Travers where he denied super filly Thorpedo Anna and got a 111 figure.
The issue, such as it is, is that every time he’s gotten an easy, clean trip he’s excelled, and the times he’s faced adversity, he’s folded. Todd Pletcher originally said he was going to skip the Travers, citing Fierceness’s need for more time between his races. That leaves open the possibility that Fierceness could improve further here with 10 weeks since that monster effort. If he does, the rest are simply running for second. He gets a good draw, allowing John Velazquez to play the break and go with things accordingly.
He represents value at the current odds (the 3-1 of the American Morning line is about right). I’ll also key him in exactas and trifectas, with Sierra Leone and City Of Troy and Ushba Tesoro, feathering in longshots for third (Newgate and Senor Buscador).
Jockey John Velazquez rides Fierceness to victory during the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) at Santa Anita Park. (Getty)
10:25pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
I think on balance, WAR LIKE GODDESS is the fastest, most consistent horse in the field. She has excuses for several recent runs (moving too soon into a fast pace last time) and she was probably best in this race over this course and distance three years ago (also moved early and wide in a race that fell apart late).
She is such a cool race mare. She’s competing at her fourth Breeders’ Cup. The last two years she chose the Turf over this race because at those venues, the Filly And Mare was contested over an inadequate (for her) 10 furlongs. Today’s added ground sees her able to face the reduced competition in this spot. She’s got a great draw and a tearaway front runner to set things up for her with some of the best figures and form on offer.
I think it might be fourth time lucky at the Breeders’ Cup for her and the prices I’m seeing are way too high. I think she’ll settle in as the favourite, at least on the tote.
Both Hang the Moon and Moira have each-way claims should the price get too short on the top one.
11:05pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Sprint
I’m torn between Mullikin and NAKATOMI but will go with the latter as my official pick (and I’ll probably end up backing both against the field).
Wesley Ward needs no introduction and he has a big chance to win his fifth Breeders’ Cup race with this one. Nakatomi looked a major contender for this off the back of his excellent win in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga, where he showed the best early speed he has ever done and still finished up well to win.
The run in the Phoenix wasn’t great and there’s a choice to be made; was he just prepping for this and you can easily forgive it or is he perhaps now heading the wrong direction? He did run his previous career best in the Sprint last year off of similar preparation. He's tactically versatile meaning he should be able to get a good sit mid-pack if they blaze on early as expected. He’s a contender for sure.
Horses coming off of the type of break Mullikin gets have a good history in this race and I like his versatility in terms of running style. Both should get excellent trips and have the tactical speed to be in touch with the early proceedings but pull something out in the finish.
11:45pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Mile
A fine contest with plenty of options. Carl Spackler and More Than Looks are solid contenders for the home team, while Diego Velazquez and Porta Fortuna come here on the back of impressive wins at Leopardstown.
Marginal preference is for NOTABLE SPEECH. He has the best mile form, is drawn to get a perfect spot and looks tailormade for this type of race, as he bids to make it four in a row in the Mile for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby.
English 2000 Guineas winner who has a wicked turn of foot but is capable of throwing in the odd shocker, as he did at Royal Ascot and last time out in the Prix du Moulin. I’m happy to forgive the latter on account of the ground, as I doubt it will have suited this good mover who’s out of an Invincible Spirit mare. He was much the best in the Sussex Stakes when quickening clear on the inner, and he looks to have all the tools to excel around the tight turns of Del Mar for a trainer who wins the race every year.
12:25pm Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
There’s an abundance of speed and I think that means DOMESTIC PRODUCT looks overpriced at 5-1.
Stamped himself as a major contender for this winning the Grade 1 Jerkens at Saratoga where the blazing early pace set up his late run. The figure he earned there would make him very competitive and he should once again get a great setup. The biggest question for him – will he be as effective going two turns over a distance a furlong farther than his signature win?
I’m not overly concerned as he ran well enough around two bends earlier in his career and has the right blend of speed of stamina to handle the challenge.
I might also play a much smaller each-way flyer on Cagliostro, who has shown talent at times and might be a wild price by the off.
Verdict
Peter Fornatale's Breeders' Cup 2024 Day 2 NAP:
Best Bet1: Fierceness Breeders' Cup Classic Tips @3/1 at BoyleSports - 15 Units
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