2025 Kentucky Derby Tips - Free guide and two selections

Jon Vine

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Last updated: Wed 30 Apr 2025 10:45

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Jon Vine 30 Apr 2025

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Free guide to the 2025 Kentucky Derby on May 3rd
This famous Classic takes place at Churchill Downs on Saturday
Sandman and Final Gambit feature in our selections

Expired

The Kentucky Derby. (Getty)

On the same day the 2000 Guineas takes place in Britain, the first Classic race of the US season will be run at Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Derby was first run almost 150 years ago and racing fans from around the world will tune in to see who wins the 2025 renewal this famous race.

Here's our free guide to the 2025 Kentucky Derby, including the latest odds, the full draw and our best betting tips.

2025 Kentucky Derby Odds

Name	Odds
Journalism	3/1
Sovereignty	6/1
Luxor Cafe	9/1
Sandman	10/1
Burnham Square	12/1
Baeza (Reserve)	16/1
Rodriguez	16/1
Bar	20/1

Justify was the last winning favourite in the Kentucky Derby and Journalism will attempt a similar feat on Saturday. Michael McCarthy's stunning colt has won both of his starts this term and looked to have plenty more in the locker when scoring in the Santa Anita Derby. Umberto Rispoli's mount brings some of the best form into Saturday's Classic and he's drawn well in stall eight.

The only downside to Journalism is his price. Following a streak of winning favourites, the Kentucky Derby has become harder to predict than one of Donald Trump's presidential speeches. The two most recent winners have returned SPs of 18/1 and 16/1. We've also seen 25/1, 66/1 and 80/1 winners in the past six years.

Bob Baffert, who'll be having his first Kentucky Derby runners since 2021, saw Citizen Bull and Rodriguez land low draws and both will likely go forward. East Avenue is another confirmed front runner, while the likes of Neoequos, Admire Daytona, Coal Battle and Owen Almighty will want to push the pace.

We have seen plenty of horses go wire-to-wire in the Kentucky Derby, including last year's winner Mystik Dan. However, I'm not convinced that any of the likely front-runners want to be stretching out to 10 furlongs and a fast early pace should set this Classic up nicely for the closers.

2025 Kentucky Derby Tip 1 - Sandman

Mark Casse is yet to win the Kentucky Derby, but he has saddled plenty of big race winners throughout his storied career and looks to have a lively contender in SANDMAN (10/1).

Jose Ortiz's mount gained some valuable course experience when finishing third to the classy Sovereignty in the Street Sense Stakes here at Churchill Downs in October, before running out an easy winner of a claimer. Sandman then placed in both the Southwest Stakes and the Rebel Stakes, before stepping up to the plate with a runaway success in the Arkansas Derby.

Ortiz's mount still looked green when he hit the front that day, but the way Sandman took control of the race and powered clear of Publisher late on was impressive. On breeding, this son of Tapit will have no trouble seeing out a mile-and-a-quarter and there's every chance this Grade One winner will improve again for this extended trip.

2025 Kentucky Derby Draw

Draw	Name	Trainer	Jockey
1	Citizen Bull	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia
2	Neoequos	Saffie Joseph Jnr	Flavien Pratt
3	Final Gambit	Brad Cox	Luan Machado
4	Rodriguez	Bob Baffert	Mike Smith
5	American Promise	D Wayne Lukas	Nik Juarez
6	Admire Daytona	Yukihiro Kato	Christophe Lemaitre
7	Luxor Café	Noriyuki Hori	Joao Moreira
8	Journalism	Michael McCarthy	Umberto Rispoli
9	Burnham Square	Iam Wilkes	Brian Hernandez Jnr
10	Grande	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez
11	Flying Mohawk	Whitworth Beckman	Joseph Ramos
12	East Avenue	Brendan Walsh	Manny Franco
13	Publisher	Steve Asmussen	Irad Ortiz Jnr
14	Tiztastic	Steve Asmussen	Joel Rosario
15	Render Judgement	Ken McPeek	Julien Leparoux
16	Coal Battle	Lonnie Briley	Juan Vargas
17	Sandman	Mark Casse	Jose Ortiz
18	Sovereignty	Billy Mott	Junior Alvarado
19	Chunk Of Gold	Ethan West	Jareth Loverberry
20	Owen Almighty	Brian Lynch	Javier Castellano
R1	Baeza	John Sherriffs	TBA

2025 Kentucky Derby Tip 2 - Final Gambit

Another closer worth backing in Saturday's feature is FINAL GAMBIT (20/1). Brad Cox's grey is a riskier proposition than Sandman, as he's yet to race on dirt, but Final Gambit's most recent victory on the Turfway Park tapeta is hard to ignore.

Luan Machado's mount wasn't particularly fancied in the Group Three Jeff Ruby Stakes, despite an impressive maiden triumph in February. Final Gambit was forced widest of all to mount a challenge from the rear, but once Cox's grey straightened for home, he surged clear of Flying Mohawk with ease, cantering to a near four-length success.

Cox's grey is by a solid sire in Not This Time and his damn, by Tapit, raced over 10-and-a-half furlongs in France during her short career. Final Gambit has handled dirt well during his recent workouts and another improved performance on Saturday could see this progressive grey go close.

Live Stream

If you want to watch this Classic race on a mobile or tablet, then check out our Kentucky Derby Live Stream page.

Verdict

Kentucky Derby 2025

I'm really keen to back Final Gambit in this year's Kentucky Derby. Brad Cox's star has improved with each of his four starts and could be a contender if he handles the switch to dirt.

Sandman is another grey with the ideal running style for this contest. Odds of 10/1 seem a little skimpy, but I'll certainly be backing Mark Casse's contender on the day, as there's a chance he'll drift to a slightly more appealing price.

Final Gambit

Each-Way

@20/1 - 15 Units

Bet £10 Get £30

with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad

Bet at bet365

Sandman

Each-Way

@10/1 - 5 Units

Bet £10 Get £30

with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad

Bet at bet365