Flemington Tips on November 5th - Race-By-Race preview for Melbourne Cup day
- Melbourne Cup opens the second day of Flemington Carnival with races starting at 10.45am
- Key picks include Apulia, Big Swinger, and Kinesiology for strategic betting
- Diverse race tips cover both outright and each-way bets for maximum potential winnings
The Melbourne Cup headlines the second day of the famous four-day Flemington Carnival and Tuesday's program kicks off early with a 10.45am start for the two-year-old opener.
Our race-by-race preview for November 5 is included below.
Flemington Tips November 5
Race 1 - 10:45AM Darley Maribyrnong Plate Tips (1000m)
Best: 10. Price Tag. The first foal from Humma Humma (three-time stakes winner) is Price Tag and she was beaten into third as fav in the Maribyrnong Trial on debut.
Being held-up from the 400m to the 300m in a sit/sprint worked against her in first race day assignment, where she picked up late over five furlongs (race-fastest last 200m).
She's one of six runners in the field with race experience and only two of those have campaigned up in straight, while natural improvement can come at start two.
Value: 5. Prestar. You have to respect the McEvoy stable in any early juvenile event, with the father and son training partnership preparing the quinella in this race last year.
They appear to have another forward youngster in Prestar, who was has completed a trial and a jump-out leading into Tuesday's debut assignment, and he won the last of those.
At 46.32 for an 800m Horsham hit-out, he ran the fastest jump-out of the October 21 set at that venue, where he showed early speed before opening up a late margin.
Race 2 - 11:20AM TAB Trophy Tips (1800m)
Best: 6. Kenmare Bay. He has been consistent in five appearances to date, with a win and three placings recorded once stepping up in distance after his debut run over 1200m.
While it's still technically his first prep, Kenmare Bay was more than six weeks between runs via his last outing at Newcastle, where he peaked late for a third-of-seven finish.
The winner of that sat outside the lead in a slowly run race, while the runner-up box-seated, so it was a decent effort without favours and he's back against his own age group here.
Value: 12. Cecchetti. This son of Fiorente stays at 1800m after missing a place in the Victoria Derby and the Adelaide form through Goldrush Guru stood up in that staying feature.
Cecchetti is still learning the caper, with the colt racing green when in restricted room via that Morphettville attempt and he arguably should've broken through the start prior.
The jockey switch to the Daniel Stackhouse is a positive for this Listed tilt and while this Matt Cumani-trained colt is still a prep or away from furnishing, Cecchetti does have ability.
Race 3 - 12:00PM MSS Security Subzero Handicap Tips (1400m)
Best: 2. Chattahoochee. At his best, Cloudland would take beating in a very weak edition of this greys event, although the fav is short enough at $2.20-$2.30 off recent form.
On Australian debut is the Group 3 placed Kiwi Chattahoochee, who has residual fitness from three spring outings and she covered ground when third in her last appearance.
Her work past the line was strong via a Cranbourne jump-out on October 28, with that 1000m heat taken out by Miraval Rose (stakes winner) who is generally a good worker.
Value: 10. She's Pretty Rich. Her biggest defeat in four Flemington starts was a 3.5-length loss in last year's Leilani Final and that tilt followed two placings over this track/trip.
She's Pretty Rich is deservedly a big price here given the poor overall strike rate on paper, however, her efforts practically stay the same whatever grade she races in.
This affair looks wide open, especially outside of the main market elects and now down in the weights off what a looks a soft map, She's Pretty Rich is worth including in the exotics.
Race 4 - 12:40PM The Schweppervescence Plate Tips (1000m)
Best: 17. Damehood. It's a tough race in lining up so many differing form lines and Damehood is one of the debut maiden victors who is up the Flemington straight for the first time.
Straight-track dashes are often sit-sprint affairs and the Ciaron Maher-trained did that in style via his debut outing at Ballarat, and an in-form Craig Willaims sticks at start two.
Although that October 17 success was a comfortable one, Damehood still wins that maiden by further had he not been inconvenienced at a key stage by the eventual runner-up.
Value: 10. Castellar. The obvious query is that the first-up Pakenham breakthrough was recorded on a Heavy 8, however, that October 18 tilt was only his second start.
While Castellar faded late on debut, his lead-up work ahead of that Caulfield event had been sharp enough to warrant a metro try and all jump-out wins have come on good tracks.
He did catch the eye when making ground to win a 650m Cranbourne heat before the October 18 performance and staying at five furlongs for now is okay.
Race 5 - 1:20PM Australian Heritage Cup Tips (2800m)
Best: 3. Kinesiology. The late betting could tell the story with early outright fav Kinesiology, a Chris Waller-trained import who is on Australian debut in this 2800m BM96.
The lightly raced entire has been stakes placed via his last four appearances in Europe and he finished alongside Thunder Roll at Group 3 level via the last of those attempts.
Thunder Roll was a stakes winner in April and she's also been competitive twice at Group 1 level in her last two outings, while the 'Magic Man' Joao Moreira takes Tuesday's engagement.
Value: 17. Dillian. There was some hype around this Ciaron Maher-trained import in his first Australian campaign, where he showed potential in four runs, but he didn't salute.
The son of Camelot was then off the scene for almost a year due to colic and ahead of his second Down Under prep, connections made the decision to geld him.
Dillian should at peak fitness now and last start at Caulfield in what is a key form reference for this, he found trouble before charging home late (race-fastest last 400m and 200m).
Race 6 - 1:55PM Furphy Plate Tips (1800m)
Best: 8. Apulia. Mark Zahra will be eager to atone aboard Apulia, who should've landed the cash for us first-up at each-way odds when resuming over 1500m at Moonee Valley.
The four-year-old launched late to just miss as runner-up in that return tilt, where he was held-up from the 400m to the 200m, so he shouldn't be flat given it wasn't a taxing run.
Apulia was one of the more talent stayers of last season's three-year-old crop before a short and failed autumn prep, but he suffered a bleed before a spell and he looks back on track.
Value: 2. Zechariah. Given he was first-up off more than a two year break due to a tendon injury, the Group 3 return via the Moonga Stakes at Caulfield was a pass mark.
While his Flemington jump-out work was rather encouraging leading into that October 19 race, not much was expected from Zechariah fresh as a drifting 60/1 chance.
His work late over a distance short of his best was fine and while he might take a few more runs to hit his top, the six-year-old does drop in grade for this 1800m assignment.
Race 7 - 3:00PM Lexus Melbourne Cup Tips (3200m)
Best: 1. Vauban. He was a well-held fav in last year's Melbourne Cup, where Vauban sweated up pre-race and he looked like a woolly mammoth in the parade, so there were some excuses.
The seven-year-old only carries only half a kilo more from the 2023 attempt and British hoop William Buick travels for this key engagement (he was aboard via his last win).
While Vauban is giving weight to all rivals, the gelding has been carrying much bigger imposts in stronger European staying contests and topweights have a good recent record.
The last four Melbourne Cup winners have carried 55.5kg or more and this is a different set-up for his second Australian appearance, as he's more seasoned and arrives later.
Next Best: 5. Kovalica. Kovalica is on track for the Melbourne Cup and he's ticking over very well with that two-mile target in mind, with the Cox Plate his lead-up following his chasing effort in the Hill Stakes.
Behind a dominant Via Sistina, there isn't much more that the son of Ocean Park could've done and for his target assignment on Tuesday, The Valley effort was a pass mark.
The winning drought since his 2023 Queensland Derby triumph last year is still in effect, however, Kovalica wasn't given many favours by his placements over last season.
The bigger circuit of Flemington should suit the Chris Waller-trained galloper and with the run seemingly timed well to be peaking for this two mile feature, he makes some appeal.
Value: 6. Sharp 'N' Smart. He looked to be the next big thing from New Zealand after his three-year-old season, with Sharp 'N' Smart fancied in many spring futures for last year after the 2023 autumn.
Sharp 'N' Smart was off the boil last season, but he appears to be building well ahead of the 2024 Melbourne Cup, which included a last start third in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup.
That solid performance followed an unlucky effort in a key form race (Turnbull Stakes) and he arrived to Australia off a tough second-up run at home with a big weight.
Champion trainer Graeme Rogerson always had him pegged as Cups prospect and there's improvement to come from his latest outing (still looked very fresh at The Valley).
Race 8 - 3:50PM The Amanda Elliott Tips (1400m)
Best: 7. Big Swinger. There's at least a handful of really progressive youngsters contesting this three-year-old Listed affair and leading the early market is the unbeaten Big Swinger.
This is a tougher ask for the hat-trick now over 1400m at stakes level for his third appearance, however, going from maiden to BM64 level with such ease is never easy to do.
A galloper who is from a good family, which includes Group 1 winning sprinter Bel Mer, Big Swinger has landed the money at odds-on quotes in both triumphs so far.
Value: 6. Media World. Although he hasn't saluted in three runs this season, Media World bring strong form lines south from those Sydney events and back in trip suits.
The Peter Snowden-trained colt didn't appear to run a strong mile last time out, but that form through Swiftfalcon, Just Party, Injerjection and China Sea reads very well.
Prior to the Dulcify Stakes, Media World ran into smart types in Autumn Glow and Lady Shenandoah (subsequent Group 1 winner), while he's also won a recent tick-over trial.
Race 9 - 4:35PM The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes Tips (1400m)
Best: 10. Fortunate Kiss. In a typically competitive mares race, Fortunate Kiss makes some each-way appeal at bolters odds off a string of decent performances without luck.
After covering ground in her latest, the six-year-old appeared to be well beaten before rallying to finish within two lengths of the winner and that followed a fourth in a good form race.
Fortunate Kiss was also set a huge task in a third-up event here that's produced three winners, including Alsephina, who has since been competitive twice at Group 1 level.
Value: 20. Flying Fizz. She still needs multiple scratchings to make the field, but there's at least a few who are likely to come out and that number could easily increase on Tuesday morning.
There were excuses for Flying Fizz in her second campaign, which includes a Warrnambool return when unsuited and she was campaigning on soft ground throughout that prep.
The daughter of Street Boss recorded a black-type placing over this distance when rounding out her first prep and she was luckless at Geelong fresh when held-up.
Race 10 - 5:15PM Channel 9 Trophy Tips (1400m)
Best: 11. Marble Arch. While she was still a touch flat second-up as a $5 chance, that October 12 effort still wasn't terrible, where Marble Arch was left with too much to do with 60kg.
I've got plenty time for the winner of that race (Poison Chalice) who arguably should've won the Crystal Mile following that success and this mare had saluted prior to that run.
With race fitness, the tactics don't need to be as cold here, where she's down in the weights for a rise in grade, but the Lady Jones form from April is stacking up in better company.
Value: 7. Jack The Lad. Another galloper in the last with race fitness is Jack The Lad, a South Australian visitor who sustained a wide run last start in the Murray Bridge Cup.
Back in distance slightly is no knock for the honest seven-year-old in this Melbourne visit and he's in decent touch, with a fresh victory followed by a pair of fourth-place finishes.
He contested a stronger race on Derby Day last year over this track/trip and Jack The Lad should've finished a touch closer in that Group 2 (tardy start and found heels).
Flemington Quaddie Tips:
Race 7: 1,2,5,6,15,21
Race 8: 6,7,15
Race 9: 4,5,9,10,20
Race 10: 7,11,12
$270 gets you 100% of the Quaddie.
Verdict
Our best & value bets for Flemington's Melbourne Cup day meeting are:
Apulia
To Win
@23/10 - 4 Units
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS
Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.
Big Swinger
To Win
@11/5 - 3 Units
£25 Free Bet Refund
with promo code NEWBONUS
Join betTOM with promo code NEWBONUS and get access to their £25 Free Bet Refunds offer. 18+ only. T&Cs apply.
Kinesiology
To Win
@12/5 - 2 Units
Bet £10 Get £10
with promo code NEWBONUS
Join betgoodwin with promo code NEWBONUS and get access to their Bet £10 Get £10 as a free ACCA welcome offer. 18+ only. T&Cs apply.
Fortunate Kiss
Each Way
@20/1 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS
18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org
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