Moonee Valley Tips on October 26th - Race-By-Race preview for Cox Plate day
- Moonee Valley hosts its premier meeting on October 26
- Key races include the Strathmore Community Bendigo Bank Handicap and 3 Point Motors Fillies Classic
- Nine of ten races on Cox Plate day are black-type events
The Group 1 Moir Stakes headlines Saturday's Moonee Valley card. (Getty)
Moonee Valley hosts their premier meeting on October 26, with the Cox Plate headling Saturday's Melbourne program.
Nine of the ten races on Cox Plate day are black-type, and the Moonee Valley Vase, Crystal Mile and Fillies Classic are among the notable support events on a famous day.
Our race-by-race preview for Saturday can be found below.
Moonee Valley Tips October 26
Race 1 - 12:10PM Strathmore Community Bendigo Bank Handicap Tips (1000m)
Best: 9. Frilled. She was badly held-up late when resuming over the 955m dash her on September 27 and Frilled probably wins that event with clear air late.
Although a colder ride on that occasion invited bad luck, those tactics showed that Frilled isn't one-dimensional, so she doesn't have to lead here given the amount of speed in the race.
That recent return outing was her first loss at Moonee Valley and with weight off some the proven class runners in this five-furlong dash, she can atone second-up on Saturday.
Value: 5. Lempicka. While she was in the worst part of the track when resuming at Caulfield on September 21, it was still a disappointing return from the six-year-old.
With a gap between runs for this assignment, Lempicka has won a subsequent jump-out and she did atone second-up last campaign after being well held in the Oakleigh Plate.
The daughter of Rich Enuff was a Listed winner last spring and off what appears to be fast tempo in the Cox Plate Day opener, she could be dangerous late from off the speed.
Race 2 - 12:45PM Sharp EIT Solutions Red Anchor Stakes Tips (1200m)
Best: 1. Bittercreek. This is an open race and while both of Bosustow and Ikasara find suitable races third-up, the two market elects are arriving off plain last start performances.
Although Bittercreek was well held as a single figure chance first-up, he may just needed run and 1200m on firmer firmer ground suits here (tongue tie also goes on).
He brings strong two-year-old form, with a second to Growing Empire prior to beating a handy El Morzillo in a Group 2 and he was then competitive twice behind Broadsiding.
Value: 6. Winnasedge. He's now deep into his first prep, having already completed three runs, however, Winnasedge could be one of the more progressive horses in this field.
The Nick Ryan-trained galloper ran the fastest closing splits of the September 6 card at Mornington when recording a stylish debut win and he then covered ground at Sandown.
He atoned from that defeat when showing a lovely turn-of-foot at Bendigo last time and in the process, Winnasedge ran the fastest last 400m and 200m of the meeting.
Race 3 - 1:20PM Symal Crockett Stakes Tips (1200m)
Best: 8. Savagery Vibe. The penny hasn't dropped for this daughter of Brutal, but she has above average ability and out to 1200m should suit the three-year-old here.
Savagery Vibe couldn't have been more impressive via her Bendigo debut romp, with that fillies maiden going more than four lengths faster overall than BM64 on that program.
She was then six weeks between runs via the Group 2 Danehill Stakes on October 5, where Savagery Vibe was untested late in the piece after finding trouble at the 100m.
Value: 9. Grinzinger Pod. This filly was also a Bendigo debut victor and while she appeared a little flat at Flemington at start two, Grinzinger Pod wasn't beaten far in that metro affair.
She's been given time since that June 9 performance and her lead-up work ahead of this return tilt has been decent, with three October jump-outs completed.
Grinzinger Pod won the first two of those spring workouts before a narrow miss when under a hold on October 21 and an in-form Craig Williams has gate one at his disposal.
Race 4 - 1:55PM 3 Point Motors Fillies Classic Tips (1600m)
Best: 7. Polymnia. I'm happy to lean the way of this Sydney visitor, who appears to be searching for 1600m fourth-up and she retains the services of J-Mac.
While she had to settle for second over 1400m last start, Polymnia ran the fastest last 400m and 200m of a Randwick-Kensington maiden that was taken out by an all-the-way winner.
It was a strong chasing effort from the daughter of Dundeel and she had handy prior form in New South Wales behind Yoshinobu and Dominetta (both subsequently stakes placed).
Value: 10. I Only Wish. You can tie in her form with Double Market (third fav), who got the better of I Only Wish after a kinder run in transit via a 1400m Ballarat maiden.
The Griffith & de Kock-trained galloper was then unlucky not to breakthrough at Pakenham, where she was held-up early in the run home before taking a tight gap at the 300m.
She receives a huge jockey upgrade with Blake Shinn now taking the reins and from an inside barrier via this 1600m attempt, I expect her to be ridden with a lot more intent.
Race 5 - 2:30PM Schweppes JRA Cup Tips (2040m)
Best: 4. Kingswood. After showing a lovely turn-of-foot first-up when winning a Sandown BM78 over a mile, Kingswood handled the step up in grade via the Coongy Cup.
He was favourite for that Caulfield feature, with punters rightfully predicting that he was the progressive runner of that Group 3 field and he was only second-up there.
The grey did enjoy more favours than Berkley Square (runner-up), however, he still safely accounted that in-form galloper and I'd be taking Berkeley Square over any of these.
Value: 5. Second To Nun. The South Australian mare found trouble last start when contesting the Seymour Cup, where she was held-up before recovering and finding the line late.
That Listed tilt followed a competitive showing in the Group 2 Stocks Stakes at Moonee Valley and especially now that she's deep into the campaign, the rise in trip suits here.
Second To Nun has been a consistent campaigner for the Clarken & O'Shea yard and she's one of the few in this field with a turn-of-foot, whereas many of her rivals are one-paced.
Race 6 - 3:05PM Drummond Golf Vase Tips (2040m)
Best: 3. Firm Agreement. This Neasham & Archibald-trained galloper is still in the Spring Champion Stakes and Moonee Valley Vase as of late Thursday afternoon.
There needs to be rules surrounding this (should have to make a decision by Thursday morning) and I'll go with Politely Dun should Firm Agreement stay in Sydney.
While he's a four/five chance at Randwick, the gelding likely starts fav in this Group 2 should he venture south, as his New South Wales form does stand out vs this lot.
Value: 1. Vianarra. Despite having accrued over $270,000 from eleven starts to date, Vianarra is still a maiden and of his Caulfield Guineas run, he looks ready for the extra trip.
The son of Shalaa started at 200/1 in that 1600m three-year-old major and after settling at the rear, his work late was quite strong (second-fastest last 400m of the race).
His second-up maiden form through Too Darn Discreet and Oxford Blue also reads well, as does some of his two-year-old references in New South Wales and Victoria.
Race 7 - 3:40PM Mittys McEwen Stakes Tips (1200m)
Best: 2. Oscar's Fortune. Did he have his chance when runner-up via the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes on Melbourne debut? Perhaps, but he was still the pick of the on-speed brigade.
The honest Perth visitor made it another top three finish in that Group 2 showing and with Oscar's Fortune undefeated second-up, he does have improvement to come.
First, third and fourth all came from off the speed in that 1100m Caulfield event, while it's also worth noting that he was giving 7.5kg to the winner, who is hard-fit and flying.
Value: 9. Extratwo. Her class might be the question at Group 2 level vs some talented out-and-out sprinters, however, the set-up otherwise looks okay for the five-year-old.
The Ciaron Maher-trained mare has been competitive via her last two appearances since a runner-up finish in the Cockram Stakes and she did cover ground last time.
From gate one with strong speed to her outside, Extratwo may well get a suck run in behind them and a return to Moonee Valley is also a plus (she's won three from five here).
Race 8 - 4:20PM Alinta Energy Crystal Mile Tips (1600m)
Best: 8. Poison Chalice. His lead-up suggested that he had furnished after a short Brisbane campaign over early winter and Poison Chalice backed it up with a stylish return win.
The $12 via that 1440m Caulfield BM84 was a gift and with this a big rise in grade for the son of Savabeel, he could drift further in the market closer to jump time.
I believe that Poison Chalice has Group 1 potential if he can put it together this season and despite doing so much wrong in earlier preps, class alone saw him build a tidy record.
Value: 2. Von Hauke. This Cliff Brown-trained galloper was touch plain first-up at Caulfield, however, 1100m was on the short side for Von Hauke in that October 12 tilt.
Although he didn't threaten when rising to 1400m at Listed level last start, the five-year-old was okay through the line and he was set a big task in that second-up outing.
He's drawn out in both runs this time in, but he can settle handier over a mile from gate two third-up and the form around Amenable via his last victory reads well for this.
Race 9 - 5:10PM Ladbrokes Cox Plate Tips (2040m)
Best: 2. Prognosis. The Japanese-based entire was beaten as an odds-on fav last time via the Group 2 Sapporo Kinen, where a slow start proved costly and he now gets the services of Damian Lane.
Lane saluted aboard Lys Gracieux in 2019, which was the first Cox Plate victory for Japan and while he doesn't quite have her resume, he still has world class form lines.
Prognosis has been unlucky a few times behind Romantic Warrior, who won last year's Cox Plate and his first Hong Kong tilt followed a placing behind a champion in Equinox.
Barrier five will allow the son of Deep Impact to find his feet early under Lane and with a fast-run 2040m an ideal scenario for the seven-year-old, he's a deserving Cox Plate fav.
Next Best: 8. Broadsiding. Godolphin should've had the last three-year-old (Southern Hemisphere-bred) Cox Plate winner, with Anamoe very unlucky not claim the 2021 edition on protest.
Past three-year-old winners in So You Think and Shamus Award recorded similar lead-up efforts in the Caulfield Guineas and Broadsiding was unsuited in that last tilt.
Had the colt saluted in that Caulfield three-year-old feature, then he's arguably the Cox Plate fav and with 2040m in mind, that latest performance was more than a pass mark.
Not only should he benefit from that first anti-clockwise run since his debut, but Broadsiding was just second-up in the Caulfield Guineas, so there's room to progress.
Value: 3. Kovalica. The winning drought since his 2023 Queensland Derby triumph last year is still in effect, however, Kovalica wasn't given many favours by his placements over last season.
A galloper who clearly needs over 2000m+ at the highest level, targeting events like the Golden Eagle and Doncaster Handicap saw him unsuited as a four-year-old.
Kovalica is on track for the Melbourne Cup and he's ticking over very well with that two-mile target in mind, with this another lead-up following his chasing effort in the Hill Stakes.
The market looks right for the 2024 Cox Plate, however, for exotic punters or even those chasing each-way value, this gelding can get home for a top three/four finish.
Race 10 - 5:50PM Powerflo Solutions Tesio Stakes Tips (2040 METRES)
Best: 9. Basilinna. This is the most open race on the entire program and while both Firestorm and Private Legacy find suitable races, the two favs are well found in the early market.
Long odds are available for Basilinna, who improved second-up in the Pinker Pinker Plate after a plain fresh performance and she'll strip fitter with that 2025m run under the belt.
Her lead-up work indicated that she might take a few runs to get warm and her class was evident throughout last season, with Group placings behind Autumn Angel and Zardozi.
Value: 2. Wishlor Lass. Given Antino looked like Phar Lap in the Toorak Handicap via a 6.5-length romp, all losing margins in that Group 1 are going to look bad on paper.
The last win for Wishlor Lass came on this card 12 months ago via an all-the-way triumph in the Tesio Stakes and she was returning from kissing spine surgery on September 21.
That runner-up effort behind Another Will suggested that she was back and now that Wishlor Lass can get control up front from a low draw, she can give a big sight in the last.
Verdict
Our best & value bets for the 2024 Cox Plate program are:
Kingswood
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Polymnia
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Poison Chalice
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