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2022 Ebor Handicap Preview - Odds, trends and a 16/1 ante-post tip

By Jon Vine
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21 Jul 2022
  • Ante-post preview of the 2022 Ebor Handicap
  • This lucrative contest takes place on day four of the Ebor Festival at York on Saturday 20th August
  • Earl Of Tyrone currently heads Gaassee in the ante-post betting
  • We've highlighted Okita Soushi as our ante-post bet at 16/1
ebor york
Ben Coen riding Sonnyboyliston (yellow) win The Sky Bet Ebor Handicap at York Racecourse on August 21, 2021. (Getty)
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One of the biggest handicap races staged in Europe takes place on day four of York's Ebor Festival, as 22 talented stayers take part in the Ebor Handicap. This contest was first run on the Knavesmire in the 1840s and legendary names like Lily Agnes, Brown Jack, Sea Pigeon and Further Flight feature on the glittering roll of honour.

Last year, I was lucky enough to tip and back Sonnyboyliston at 20/1 before he delivered the goods at York. Today, I've taken a look through the entries for this year's Ebor Handicap, listed the key recurring trends and picked out a runner to back at 16/1.

Ebor Handicap Trends


  • 14 of the last 15 winners were four, five or six-years-old
  • 13 of the last 15 winners carried 9-00 or more
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had all run over the Ebor trip or further
  • 12 of the last 15 winners went off at a double-figure price
  • 12 of the last 15 winners had run no more than 4 times that year
  • 11 of the last 15 winners had been off the track for at least 30 days
  • 11 of the last 15 winners were drawn in stall 14 or wider
  • 60% of top four placers came from a double-figure stall
  • 11 of the last 15 winners won or placed on their last handicap start
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were rated 101 or more

2022 Ebor Handicap Odds


Name
Odds
Earl Of Tyrone7/1
Gaassee9/1
Candleford10/1
Cleveland12/1
Cemhaan14/1
Coltrane14/1
Bar16/1

*Odds taken on 21/7/22*

Leading the way in the early betting is Paddy Twomey's Earl Of Tyrone, who made it three wins on the bounce when landing a Listed prize at Limerick back in June. Chester Cup winner, Cleveland sits second in the market, but after he was brought by owner Lloyd Williams and transferred to Joseph O'Brien, a tilt at the Melbourne Cup will be at the top of his agenda.

William Haggas is still searching for his first victory in the Ebor and his most likely runners, Gaassee, Candleford and Hamish all sit prominently in the betting. Alan King could be represented by Northern Dancer handicap winner, Midnights Legacy.

George Baker's Cemhaan can be backed at 14/1. Yet, with a rating of just 92, it'll be a miracle if he made it into the final 22-horse field. In fact, there are currently 50 entrants rated 100 or above, so a mark of 101 or 102 may be required just to get a run.

2022 Ebor Handicap Tip - Okita Soushi 


Okita Soushi2022 Ebor Handicap Ante-Post TipGET 16/1 HERE
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As mentioned in the trends, 13 of the last 15 winners carried 9-00 or more. All 13 of those winners were rated within 10 pounds of the top-rated runner. At the moment, 115-rated Tashkhan looks set to carry top-weight in this year's Ebor, so I won't be looking at any runner rated less than 105.

Even if Cleveland doesn't run at this year's Ebor Festival, Joseph O'Brien could have a big say in who wins this year's Ebor. Raise You was an unlucky loser behind favourite Earl Of Tyrone last time out, and Baron Samedi has enough class to contend off 110 if he was to take his chance.

The O'Brien runner I'm really keen on is OKITA SOUSHI, who I NAP'd when he ran in the Copper Horse Stakes on day one of Royal Ascot. 

Very few horses made in-roads from off the pace during that meeting, so I wasn't too pleased to see Declan McDonogh hold Okita Soushi up out the back. Joseph O'Brien's colt did very well to stay on from the rear and finish just two lengths behind Get Shirty - who's won again since - in third.

Okita Soushi was last seen finishing second to stablemate, Shoshone Warrior in the Belfield at Leopardstown. The winner that day poached a 15-length lead coming out the blocks and was never pegged back. O'Brien's four-year-old, who was giving a stone to the winner, kept on well in the closing stages to finish second ahead of 107-rated Sandhurst, who was also getting a stone from Tony Hamilton's mount.

Okita Soushi has only had five lifetime starts. On his first two outings this season, he's recorded RPRs of 111 and 112. O'Brien's four-year-old has the ideal profile for a race like the Ebor and could be extremely well-treated off his current mark of just 106.
GB

Verdict

Okita Soushi is our first ante-post selection in the 2022 Ebor Handicap.

2022 Ebor Handicap Tips: Okita Soushi Each-Way @16/1 at Ladbrokes - 10 Units
Okita Soushi
Each-Way
@16/1 - 10 Units
Bet £5 Get £20

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