Grand National 2023 Trends - Key stats and top performers
- Key trends and stats ahead for the 2023 Grand National
- This famous handicap takes place at Aintree on Saturday 15th April
- Galvin, Le Milos and Quick Wave came out best at the trends
We're now weeks away from the 2023 renewal of the Grand National. The final field of 40 is starting to take shape and we look set for a fantastic renewal of this famous handicap come April 15th.
When it comes to Grand National trends, Noble Yeats was very much a trend buster 12 months ago. Emmet Mullins' charge was a seven-year-old novice, who's only previous win over fences had come over 18 furlongs and he'd finished a distant ninth on his final outing before the National.
Events at Aintree, and indeed since have proven that Noble Yeats was exceptionally well-handicapped last year. With no obvious horses with a similar profile lurking down the handicap, it could be a safe bet to trust the trends once again in 2023.
I've taken a look through the last ten runnings of the Grand National, listed some key recurring trends and put them against this year's field to see how they stack up.
2023 Grand National Key Trends
- 10 of the last 10 winners ran in a high-profile race last time out
- 10 of the last 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had started at least 10 races over fences
- 9 of the last 10 winners aged between 8 and 11
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won no more than two handicap chases
- 9 of the last 10 winners had their last run in February or March
- 8 of the last 10 winners were rated 146 or higher
- 8 of the last 10 winners finished no worse than 5th last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won or placed over 3m2f or further
- 7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-13 or less
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners had never run over the Grand National course
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won a chase over at least 3m
2023 Grand National Trend Setters
Of the 43 runners we put to the 13 key trends, 23 ticked off either 10 or 11 trends. No runners were a perfect 13 from 13, but there were three who fulfilled 12 of the 13 criteria.
One of those is GALVIN, who's only let down by the fact that he'll have to lumber 11-11 around Aintree next month. Gordon Elliott's star is a previous National Hunt Chase winner and travels to Aintree on the back of an excellent run behind Delta Work in the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham - a race Elliott often uses to prep his National runners.
British challengers LE MILOS and QUICK WAVE only failed to tick off every trends box due to the fact that they've both won more than two handicaps over fences. In Britain, there are far more handicaps both for novice chasers and in open company, compared to Ireland, who stage more Beginners Chases and conditions races, so it's easy to see why many of the leading British candidates failed to fulfill that particular trend.
2023 Grand National Trends Shirkers
Seven of the 43 runners we covered only managed to tick off 8 of the 13 key trends boxes. There were three, however, who scraped an even worse score than that.
CAPODANNO achieved a score of just 7 out of 13. Willie Mullins' seven-year-old failed to tick off the age, weight and experience trends boxes. Capodanno has only run once so far this season and is yet to win or place over 3m2f or further.
Fellow seven-year-old GIN ON LIME achieved the same score as Capodanno. Henry De Bromhead's mare is rated below 146, ran poorly at Cheltenham last time out and is yet to win a chase of three miles, let alone win or place over this sort of marathon distance.
HILL SIXTEEN also achieved the worst score in our trends analysis. Sandy Thompson's ten-year-old, who finished last of ten on his prep-run at Kelso this weekend, is yet to win this season and both of his victories over fences have come over trips shorter than three miles.
Verdict
Galvin, Le Milos and Quick Wave ticked off 12 of the 13 tick boxes for the 2023 Grand National.
Galvin
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Le Milos
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Quick Wave
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