Key trends and stats ahead for the 2022 Grand National
This famous handicap takes place at Aintree on Saturday 9th April
We've picked out some key recurring ten-year trends
Find out which runners are the best performers in our Grand National trends analysis
Runners ands riders start the Grand National Hanidcap Chase. (Getty)
We're now just days away from the 2022 renewal of the Grand National. The final field of 40 is starting to take shape and we look set for a fantastic renewal of this famous handicap come April 9th.
Many punters like to use trends as a guideline when placing bets on big handicaps. They're by no means guaranteed to find the winner, but it's as good a method to use as any if you're struggling to make a decision as to which runner you want to back.
I've taken a look through the last ten runnings of the Grand National, listed some key recurring trends and put them against this year's field to see how they stack up.
Grand National Trends
Weight
Chasing Experience
Handicap Form
Proven Stamina
Seasonal Form
Last Run
National Fences
Key Trends Checklist
Grand National Trendsetters - Top Performers
Trendsetters - Next Best
Trendsetters - Worst Performers
Grand National 2022 Tips - Grand National Trends
Weight
Horses with proven class at the highest level can carry big weights to Grand National victory.
Only three of the last ten Grand National winners carried 11-00 or more. Tiger Roll was one of the three who bucked that trend. He had already won this historic handicap and a National Hunt Chase. Many Clouds had won the Cotswold Chase that season and Neptune Collonges was a three-time Grade One winner.
Chasing Experience
Plenty of experience over fences is vital when it comes to the Grand National.
All of the last ten winners had started at least ten times over fences. Only Rule The World had failed to win at least twice over the larger obstacles going into the Grand National, but he had finished second in five Graded races, including the Grade One Neville Hotels and the Irish Grand National the previous season, so he could hardly be described as a novice.
Handicap Form
While experience is important, it's very hard to win the Grand National when you're in the grip of the handicapper.
Only two of the last ten winners of the Grand National had won more than two handicap chases. The two who bucked that trend, Auroras Encore and Ballabriggs had only won three handicaps over fences, and both had spent plenty of time running in Listed and Graded races prior to arriving at Aintree.
Proven Stamina
Minella Times won last year's Grand National having never won over three miles and he'd never been tried over 26 furlongs or further - a quite incredible feat when you delve deeper into the trends.
Nine of the last ten National winners had either won or placed in a chase staged over a trip of three-and-a-quarter-miles or further. Only last year's winner and Rule The World had failed to win a three mile chase.
Seasonal Form
A light and consistent campaign leading into the Grand National has often paid dividends.
Eight of the last ten winners had run three or four times that season, with the other two winners both running six times. Seven of the last ten winners had won during that campaign. Two of the three who didn't win finished second on two occasions.
Last Run
A strong performance in a high-profile race is often the best prep for Grand National success.
All of the last ten winners had their last run within 85 days of the National. Two of those ten won on their previous start and only two finished outside the top four. One was Many Clouds, who finished a highly-creditable sixth in the Gold Cup before winning at Aintree.
National Fences
It's better to have not experienced the Grand National fences before, than to have tried and failed.
Seven of the last ten winners were having their first start over the fearsome National fences. Tiger Roll had already won the race and One For Arthur had only been beaten three lengths in the Becher Chase. Pineau De Re was the only winner with a failure over around the National course to his name, having fallen at the eighth flight in that season's Becher.
Minella Times was somewhat of a trends anomaly when he won the Grand National last year. (Getty)
Key Trends Checklist
Age - Between 8 and 11
Weight - 11-00 or less
Rating - 146 or more
Chase Starts - 10 or more
Handicap Wins - 2 or less
Season Starts - Between 3 and 6
Season Form - At least 1 win or 1 second
Last Start Date - No longer than 85 days ago
Last Result - 4th or better
Distance - Won at least one 3m chase
Stamina - Won or placed over 3m2f or further
National Fences - Never tried them or placed over them
Grand National Trendsetters - Top Performers
Name
Total
Missing Trends
Delta Work
11/12
Weight (Over 11st)
Any Second Now
11/12
Weight (Over 11st)
Run Wild Fred
11/12
Weight (Over 11st)
Burrows Saint
11/12
Weight (Over 11st)
Court Maid
11/12
Chase Starts (Only 9)
Agusta Gold
11/12
Distance (No 3m Win)
Deise Aba
11/12
Rating (Under 146)
I've put the top 46 names against those key trends and seven entrants tick off 11 of the 12 key trends outlined above.
Delta Work, Any Second Now, Run Wild Fred and Burrows Saint miss out on a perfect trends score due to weight. Delta Work is a five-time Grade One winner over fences. Any Second Now is also a multiple Graded winner. Burrows Saint is a Grade Three and former Irish Grand National winner. Run Wild Fred is missing a big Graded win from his CV, but he has shown enough to suggest that he can handle plenty of weight in a handicap of this stature.
A couple of surprising trendsetters are the Irish mares Court Maid and Agusta Gold, who both scored 11 out of 12. Court Maid has won the grueling Porterstown Handicap and will have her first start for Henry De Bromhead at Aintree. Agusta Gold is yet to win over three miles, but Willie Mullins' mare was beaten a head in the 2020 Grand National Trial at Punchestown and returned to form with another solid runner-up effort last time out.
Deise Aba is the best-performing British contender when it comes to trends. Philip Hobbs' nine-year-old has twice won the Masters Handicap around Sandown and was only beaten a nose in the London National.
Trendsetters - Next Best
Name
Total
Missing Trends
Lostintranslation
10/12
Weight (Over 11st)
Last Time Out (Only 8th)
Fiddlerontheroof
10/12
Weight (Over 11st)
Distance (No 3m Win)
Santini
10/12
Weight (Over 11st)
Last Time Out (Only 8th)
Farclas
10/12
Season Starts (Only 2)
Last Start Date (129 days ago)
Escaria Ten
10/12
Season Starts (Only 2)
Chase Starts (Only 7)
Good Boy Bobby
10/12
Last Time Out (Only 7th)
Stamina (Never tried further 3m)
Snow Leopardess
10/12
Chase Starts (Only 9)
Handicap Wins (3)
Death Duty
10/12
Rating (Less than 146)
Last Time Out (Only 6th)
School Boy Hours
10/12
Rating (Less than 146)
Last Time Out (PU)
Fortescue
10/12
Rating (Less than 146)
Handicap Wins (6)
Lostintranslation and Santini will both carry more than 11-stone and missed the recent run trend thanks to a pair of eighth-place finishes at the Cheltenham Festival (Ultima and Gold Cup respectively). Fiddlerontheroof also carries more than 11 stone and is yet to win a race over three miles, despite proving his stamina with runner-up finishes in high-profile staying handicaps the last twice.
Gordon Elliott's pair of Farclas and Escaria Ten have only run twice so far this season. Escaria Ten has only started seven chases under rules, and Farclas hasn't been seen since finishing second to Run Wild Fred in the Troytown Handicap back in November.
Talking horse, Snow Leopardess has only started nine chases and three of her four victories have come in handicaps. Good Boy Bobby could only finish seventh under top-weight on his most recent start at Kempton and has never been tried over a trip further than three miles.
Death Duty, Fortescue and School Boy Hours also scored 10/12, but will need runners to come out in order to make the final field.
Trendsetters - Worst Performers
Despite winning this race 12 months ago, Minella Times only managed to tick seven of the 12 trends boxes. Stablemate Poker Party also checked seven of the 12 criteria. As did Noble Yeats, who will attempt to become the first seven-year-old to win the Grand National since before WW2.
Irish Grand National winner, Freewheelin Dylan scored just 8/12. As did fellow Irish raiders Longhouse Poet and Class Conti, with British challengers Phoenix Way, Kildisart and Commodore matching that lowly score.
