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Caulfield Betting Tips for October 21st - Race-By-Race preview for Caulfield Cup day

gary-emmerson
19 Oct 2023
gary-emmerson
Gary Emmerson 19 Oct 2023
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  • Get our tips and best bets for the Caulfield Races
  • They host the Melbourne metro meeting on October 21
  • The track is currently rated a Good 4
  • Our race-by-race preview for Saturday is included below
Caulfield Tips for 21.10.2023
The Caulfield Cup headlines Saturday's Melbourne card. (Getty)
 

Caulfield hosts a ten-race program on October 21 and our free betting tips and best bets are available.

Our Caulfield best bets are provided by expert form analysts and tipsters, while a preview of Saturday's meeting is included below.

Caulfield Tips October 21


Race 1 - 12:15PM Lamaro's Hotel Plate Tips (1400m)


Best: 2. Brave Mead. Stripping fitter third-up and now drawing soft in a race that's arguably a little weaker overall, Brave Mead gets every chance to go one better, with the extra 200m also in his favour.

Fresh against Steparty, the Australian Bloodstock-owned colt looked in need of the run and then second-up as a $2 fav, drawing the widest in a field of six worked against him at The Valley.

He sustained a wide run from off the speed, whereas a talented Maharba (winner) did zero work and got the breaks at the right time, so he's worth another look here.
Value: 5. Reprisal. Tipped out and gelded despite a promising debut performance in May, this son of Trapeze Artist defied a late betting drift to record a breakthrough victory first-up at The Valley.

Reprisal did get the favours there, albeit the market did indicate that he'd need that outing and he's always looked like he would prosper over more ground, so he can improve out to 1400m.

Around the second, third and fourth placegetters, there was depth to that Moonee Valley maiden, while Danny O'Brien is in good touch, with 23 winners from his last 100 starters.

Race 2 - 12:50PM Neds Classic Tips (2000m)


Best: 2. Riff Rocket. This Chris Waller-trained gelding saluted as our best bet on Turnbull Stakes day despite a late betting drift and while the win was no shock, the 5.5-length winning margin did surprise.

Riff Rocket settled beautifully in transit under James McDonald and once the gap opened at the 300m, he exploded away, with his last 400m more than six lengths quicker than next fastest.

He's now the Victoria Derby market elect and with a few others in the market unlikely to go there, Riff Rocket will be a $2 fav for that 2500m feature if he bolts in again here.

Value: 6. Gates. He was scratched from the Super Impose Stakes which was won by Riff Rocket a fortnight ago and while Gates is a month between runs here second-up, he still steps to up to the 2000m.

The Peter Moody & Katherine Coleman-trained colt is a lovely type and the big, strong son of Frankel returned nicely with a 1500m breakthrough at Sandown las month.

Despite needing more time to furnish, he was fancied on debut in May and that short autumn prep is a good grounding for what appears to be a Derby path this campaign.

Race 3 - 1:25PM Schweppes Ethereal Stakes Tips (2000m)


Best: 5. Konasana. With three runs under her belt, we'll know after Saturday whether it's push-on or paddock time for Konasana, with the daughter of Dundeel arriving here off a much-needed kill.

I believe she's Group 1 quality, however, that could be a prep or two away, as she's still not furnished and that was again evident at The Valley, where she appeared to wait for her rivals.

It'll be interesting to see if she's taken improvement from that third-up performance and while the filly did lad on that occasion, she may look for a trail this time around.

Value: 3. Coco Sun. Spelled after opening her account with back-to-back wins in winter, which includes a Listed triumph in Adelaide, this second campaign has cbeen all about the VRC Oaks.

Her 1400m return at Caulfield was effectively a trial and then over the Flemington mile, Coco Sun sustained a long and wide run before peaking late, which will top her off nicely for this.

The Autumn Sun was out of a Galileo mare, so don't be surprised if his first-season progeny are Oaks/Derby types this season, while this filly is out of a 2000m winning dam.

Race 4 - 2:00PM Stow Storage Gothic Stakes Tips (1200m)


Best: 8. Facile. With three seconds and a fifth from four two-year-old outings last season (all at stakes level), this filly was thereabouts and she was given plenty of time ahead of her second campaign.

That patience has paid off, with Facile breaking through on return at Warwick Farm and as a sprinter who was weak late in her races last prep, it was encouraging to see her work at both ends.

It's an open race, albeit it's not an overly strong Listed affair for the three-year-olds and as a galloper seemingly on an upward spiral, she should be able to measure up.

Value: 1. Arkansaw Kid. There were excuses for the first-up Flemington failure on September 16, with cardiac arrhythmia detected post-race and as a result, Team Hawkes has freshened up this colt.

Arkansaw Kid has since won a tick-over trial and he appeared to move well when holding off some handy older sprinters in Midwest and General Beau via that Flemington workout.

He did show nice improvement second-up last prep when third in the Blue Diamond and from barrier one with a few speedsters in this field, he'll do no work in transit.

Race 5 - 2:35PM Manhari Metals Thousand Guineas Prelude Tips (1400m)


Best: 3. Coeur Volante. A classy type from the Michael Moroney yard, Coeur Volante has the talent to become one of the better middle-distance gallopers from here crop, especially among the fillies.

This three-year-old has always impressed me and while 1200m was on the short side, we specked her at the The Valley and she won that Group 3 as our Value Bet on September 28.

If the outside run had of appeared earlier, Coeur Volante would've won that fresh outing by a lot further and while the map is a query here, class should take her a long way.
Value: 10. Apache Level. After taking on stronger company in three runs over her first campaign, she was placed for a kill fresh at Moe and she won as a well-supported $1.22 chance should.

It probably said more about her opposition, given she was able to pinch runs after settling in an awkward position and still win by 6.5 lengths, although the time was okay for the class. 

Craig Williams is one of the better judges in the jockey ranks and it's worth noting that he went to Moe on September 28 for that one ride, which was after trialling Apache Level.

Race 6 - 3:15PM The McCafe Sprint Tips (1000m)


Best: 6. Spacewalk. After throwing away a handful of races as a two and early three-year-old, this Godolphin sprinter was gelded and he looked set to go through when heading south third-up in February.

Having won at Rosehill ahead of that Group 3 attempt at Sandown, Spacewalk did look well placed, but with a plain run there followed by three more misses, he was at the crossroads.

Spelled after bouncing back in the June Stakes, he's strung a few together courtesy of a return victory, where the four-year-old recorded the best closing sectionals of the card.

Value: 3. Indian Pacific. With a few up-and-comers, he does find it hard in Perth now, especially once he gets opposition taking him on up front, which has left him vulnerable over his last few preps.

In a small field and with Midwest coming out, Indian Pacific should take up his customary role in the lead, with Doull the only other speed influence and he's also accepted at Randwick.

He nearly won a Newmarket in his last Melbourne visit and that was about the last time he was right down in the weights like this, while the gelding won his latest jump-out.

Race 7 - 3:50PM Sharp Eit Tristarc Stakes Tips (1400m)


Best: 2. Skew Wiff. I don't like the race, as there isn't much separating the three Melbourne mares coming from the Blazer Stakes a fortnight ago, while few of the other key chances aren't exactly flying.

It will interesting to see what the betting does with Skew Wiff, who was a last-start New Zealand Group 1 winner and she beat Legarto, Sharp 'N' Smart and La Crique in that Tarzino Trophy.

Two of those gallopers are Australian Group 1 winners, while the other was fourth as an odds-on chance in an Empire Rose, so she's overqualified if anything for a modest mares Group 2.
Value: 1. Madame Pommery. She returns to the track/trip that brought about her Group 1 win in last year's Thousand Guineas, with Madame Pommery mixing her form since that feature triumph.

She looked set for a big spring after a huge return and given the Chris Waller mare was then a month between runs and dropping in trip second-up, I wonder if there was a little setback?

The four-year-old was plain third-up in the Epsom, albeit she was in no man's land there and now down in grade with J-Mac back on, an improved showing wouldn't shock.

Race 8 - 4:30PM Neds Moonga Stakes Tips (1400m)


Best: 9. Times Square. European imports often improve in their second Australian preps and in what is a nothing race, this Maher & Eustace-trained could figure fresh off a slick jump-out win.

Times Square led throughout in that Cranbourne heat and safely beat home Group 3 winner Jennilala, a stablemate who returned with a fresh victory at Caulfield on Wednesday. 

The French Listed winner also completed two Sydney trials in August, so she's completed plenty of work ahead of this fresh attempt and she maps for a soft run from gate three.

Value: 7. Cause For Concern. As a galloper who's seemingly been up for an eternity, it's surprising that he's only had 11 starts overall, although nine of those appearances have come this year.

He improved with racing over the winter, which included two Flemington wins and after a 2.5-length defeat in the Group 3 Aurie's Star, Cause For Concern was sent for a freshen-up.

The four-year-old has held his form in two spring performances and while he was out-sprinted by a few sharper ones in the Gilgai, he was looking for 1400m off that last attempt.

Race 9 - 5:15PM Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup Tips (2400m)


Best: 2. Without A Fight. Anthony & Sam Freedman opted to send the seven-year-old straight to the Caulfield Cup after his slashing Underwood Stakes return, having recorded the fastest closing sectionals of that Group 1.

That 1800m feature is a strong form race, with two subsequent Group 1 winners produced from the Underwood, while Vow And Declare, Lunar Flare and Duais also performed well at their next starts.

In terms of a lead-up, especially with 2400m in mind, he couldn't be going any better ahead of his target assignment and while it's a strong edition of the Caulfield Cup, he's arguably the safest pick.

Value: 9. Duke De Sessa. A versatile import prepared by Ciaron Maher & David Eustace, Duke De Sessa was heavily supported to win the Doncaster Mile in autumn via his Australian debut, but those bets didn't land.

Duke De Sessa then wasn't disgraced first-up in the Memsie, however, 1400m proved too short and then second-up, he contested the Turnbull Stakes, where he was competitive without threatening.

It lacked the flashing light of others, although the tongue tie goes on (which was recommended) and John Allen getting down to 53kg suggests that the Caulfield Cup has always been the target.

Race 10 - 5:50PM Carlton Draught Alinghi Stakes Tips (1100m)


Best: 4. Little Miss Kubi. In a typically competitive mares sprint to end the Caulfield Cup program, this Cliff Brown-trained sprinter could be the each-way play, especially if they overdo it upfront.

Little Miss Kubi is tactically versatile, as she showed when winning a stakes race last autumn, but with Viviane, Aitch Two Oh and Hypothetical in the field, her best hope is a midfield trail.

She's been ticking over nicely and her two wins last campaign did come deeper into the prep, so now hard fit fourth-up and over a more suitable trip, this could be a target,
Value: 2. Bound For Home. A Group 3 winner over this track/trip in August 2022, Bound For Home was off the scene for around 10 months before returning as a single-figure chance on August 19.

She appeared to be travelling well first-up before finding the quicksand lanes in the straight, but after a plain effort in the Cockram Stakes, the mare has been freshened up again.

Bound For Home gets the tongue tie on here and she looked very slick when winning a jump-out on October 9, while at the price, she seems the forgotten runner in this.
            

Verdict

Our best & value bets for Saturday's Caulfield Cup meeting are:

Best Bet1: Brave Mead To Win @17/10 at Boylesports - 4 Units
Best Bet2: Coeur Volante To Win @5/1 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Without A Fight To Win @7/1 at Grosvenor Sports - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Times Square Each Way @15/2 at QuinnBet - 1 Unit
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