Breeders' Cup 2023 Tips - Peter Fornatale's Day 1 Selections

In his column with AtTheRaces, US racing expert Peter Fornatale has published his selections for day one of the 2023 Breeders' Cup...

AMIDST WAVES is a very interesting runner here. She comes out of the fastest domestic prep, where she finished right with two of today’s rivals, but I think she had the toughest trip having been stymied for run at a key stage. The pace looks blazing here and her closing style should be seen to good effect. George Weaver goes with three live chances here but she might be the best of the bunch, especially at the highest odds of the three.

TAMARA looks special. On debut, she showed incredible poise and talent, winning from out of position from a tough draw. Her next trick was even more impressive – she stepped up to Grade 1 company and won with comical ease, never really getting into a full gallop and still running a figure comfortably above the par for this race. She’s never gone long but her mom, the great Beholder, had never run this far before winning this race 10 years ago. Like mother, like daughter.

What a fascinating puzzle this race is! SHE FEELS PRETTY an impressive profile to this spot. She was terrific in the Natalma, a race that’s produced extraordinary form with five next out winners. Her figure was strong, and you can probably upgrade it a few points based on how well she finished. Trainer Cherie DeVaux is relatively unknown but she learned from the best turf trainer out there – her former boss Chad Brown. She’s getting some bigger clients now – like Lael Stables who own this one – and I expect her to get a Breeders’ Cup win soon, maybe as soon as this race.

PORTA FORTUNA made it three from three when winning the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and ran well again next time in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes against the boys. She tried to stretch out to seven furlongs on her next start but had no kick when the front two accelerated away. The ground was probably too soft there and she’s subsequently won a Group 1 win with a gutsy score in the Cheveley Park Stakes, defeating Pearls And Rubies with a bit to spare. Clearly a very talented filly who has leading form claims. She’s a likely winner if she can extend her speed to the two-turn mile here but it’s also possible she’s more of a grinding sprinter. Gets interesting to me around 6-1.

It's a competitive race, but I think LOCKED Is a really interesting runner in this spot. He comes here off a win in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland that was even better than it looked as he battled all the way through a wide trip and would not be denied late. He’s an improving type who should be able to get the run of the race from off the pace.

RIVER TIBER was hyped to the moon early in the season and he lived up to that hype, annexing the 20-runner Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot against the best two-year-olds we’d seen at that point at short odds. He’s had two solid runs since against the excellent Vandeek and I generally think if you can get six furlongs at Ascot, you can get this distance around two turns at Santa Anita. Adding to his appeal is that he wasn’t really discussed for this race ahead of the pre-entries, which suggests he’s thriving at home. A major player.