This historic handicap takes place at Chepstow on Wednesday 27th December
Blade Runner is our ante-post suggestion at 50/1
We've also backed Iwilldoit at 7/1
Expired
Stan Sheppard riding Iwilldoit clear the last to win The Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase in 2021. (Getty)
One of the biggest betting races to take place over Christmas is the Welsh Grand National. This three-and-three-quarter mile handicap chase was first run at Chepstow racecourse back in 1895. The Welsh National has been won by several Gold Cup heroes down the years too, including greats like Burrough Hill Lad, Master Oats, Synchronised and Native River.
We've taken a look through the ante-post betting this year's Welsh Grand National and listed some key trends, before picking out our best betting tips.
2023 Welsh Grand National Odds
Name
Odds
Monbeg Genius
8/1
Super Survivor
7/1
Nassalam
8/1
Iwilldoit
10/1
Autonomous Cloud
10/1
Bar
12/1
2023 Welsh Grand National Trends
19 of the last 21 winners finished in the top four places on their last start
18 of the last 21 winners were aged between six and nine
17 of the last 21 winners had run over a distance of three-and-a-half-miles (28 furlongs) at least once before
17 of the last 21 winners had previously won on Very Soft or Heavy ground
16 of the last 21 winners carried a weight of 10-10 or less
16 of the last 21 winners had run at least twice that season
15 of the last 21 winners went off at 10/1 or shorter
11 of the last 21 winners had won over fences at Chepstow
The Welsh Grand National has been a terrible race for bookmakers in recent years. The vast majority of winners over the past two decades have gone off at a single-figure price. Super Survivor tops the market, but his recent form wasn't exactly boosted when stablemate Git Maker was thrashed at Ascot on Saturday. Complete Unknown will carry 11-13, but history is firmly against Harry Cobden's mount, as only future Gold Cup winner Native River has carried more than 11-08 to victory since 1991.
2023 Welsh Grand National Ante-Post Tip - Blade Runner
Running from outside of the handicap hasn't stopped horses from winning this race down the years. So, at a massive price, I've had a small bet on BLADE RUNNER (Tipped at 50/1, now 33/1), in the hope that he makes the final field of 20.
Chris Gordon sent his seven-year-old chasing before his novice hurdles season had finished. Blade Runner claimed victory on three of his first four starts over the larger obstacles at Plumpton, finishing a close second on his reappearance last season.
After a couple of runs over hurdles during the spring, Blade Runner was sent back over fences on his reappearance here at Chepstow, claiming a three-length win over Snowy Evening, who's bolted up by 20 lengths since. Gordon's star then returned to his favourite venue, Plumpton, to beat I See You Well in a competitive Class 3.
Blade Runner showed no enthusiasm for the smaller obstacles on his last start at Ascot, but I wouldn't worry too much about that. This strapping son of Great Pretender eats up the fences, does nothing but stay and could be open to even more improvement over these marathon distances.
Rex Dingle riding Blade Runner clear the last to win The Littlehampton Welding Ltd Handicap Chase at Plumpton Racecourse. (Getty)
2023 Welsh Grand National Final Tip - Iwilldoit
If IWILLDOIT (7/1) was carrying 12-00, then I would worry for the 2021 winner. However, Sam Thomas has decided to call upon seven-pound claimer Dylan Johnston - who rode a nice winner over fences for Olly Murphy just before Christmas - and under his revised weight of 11-07, I think I willdoit could run another massive race.
Thomas' star bolted up in the Trial here at Chepstow in 2021, before surging to another emphatic victory in the main event later that month, despite running from two pounds outside of the handicap. Having spent 13 months on the sidelines, Iwilldoit proved his quality in the 2023 Classic Chase at Warwick, securing another resounding success under 11-10 on bottomless ground.
In preparation for a second tilt at the Welsh National, Thomas ran his star in a handicap hurdle at Aintree last month. Iwilldoit ran a screamer to finish second behind Gentleman At Arms, when giving the winner 16 pounds at the weights. That run should tee Iwilldoit up perfectly for his return to Chepstow and I wouldn't be surprised if Sam Thomas' ten-year-old became just the second horse to reclaim the Welsh Grand National crown.
Verdict
Blade Runner is our ante-post tip for the 2023 Welsh Grand National. We've also backed Iwilldoit at 7/1.
2022 Welsh Grand National Best Bet: Blade Runner E/W 2023 Welsh Grand National Ante-Post Tip @50/1 at QuinnBet - 5 Units
Best Bet2: Iwilldoit 2023 Welsh Grand National @7/1 at bet365 - 10 Units
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