2022 Welsh Grand National Tips - Odds, Trends and Two Top Tips
- Read our guide to the 2022 Welsh Grand National
- This historic handicap takes place at Chepstow on Tuesday 27th December
- Quick Wave is the favourite with the bookmakers
- Get the latest odds, key trends and our two against the field here
One of the biggest betting races to take place over Christmas is the Welsh Grand National. This three-and-three-quarter mile handicap chase was first run at Chepstow racecourse back in 1895. The Welsh National has been won by several Gold Cup heroes down the years too, including greats like Burrough Hill Lad, Master Oats, Synchronised and Native River.
We've taken a look through the field set to contest this year's Welsh Grand National and listed some key trends, before picking out our top two betting tips.
2022 Welsh Grand National Odds
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Quick Wave | 9/2 |
| The Galloping Bear | 7/1 |
| Ask Me Early | 8/1 |
| The Big Dog | 8/1 |
| Pats Fancy | 9/1 |
| Bar | 10/1 |
*Odds taken on 21/12/2022*
2022 Welsh Grand National Trends
- 18 of the last 20 winners were aged between six and nine
- 18 of the last 20 winners finished in the top four places on their last start
- 16 of the last 20 winners had run over a distance of three-and-a-half-miles (28 furlongs) at least once before
- 16 of the last 20 winners had previously won on Very Soft or Heavy ground
- 15 of the last 20 winners carried a weight of 10-10 or less
- 15 of the last 20 winners went off at 10/1 or shorter
- 15 of the last 20 winners had run at least twice that season
- 11 of the last 20 winners had won over fences at Chepstow
The Welsh Grand National has been a terrible race for bookmakers in recent years. The vast majority of winners over the past two decades have gone off at a single-figure price, so looking toward those sitting at the head of the betting seems a sensible place to start
Weight is also vitally important. Only four of the last 20 winners have won with more than 11-00 on their backs. Two of those were future Gold Cup winners and the others were improving six-year-olds. With no potential Grade One winners sitting near the head of the weights this year, I'll be looking to the bottom half of the weights for my selections.
2022 Welsh Grand National Tip 1 - Ask Me Early
An impressive winner on the Welsh Grand National card two years ago, ASK ME EARLY looks teed up to run a cracker in this year's contest.
Harry Fry's eight-year-old headed the ante-post betting for this race 12 months ago, having impressed at the end of his novice campaign and won two novice hurdles in the build-up. Sadly, Ask Me Early fell in the final schooling session before his big assignment and Fry was forced to pull his chaser out at the last minute.
Sean Bowen's mount returned to action this term with a decent third at Bangor, in a race won by future Coral Gold Cup winner, Le Milos. The Welsh Grand National has been the main aim for Ask Me Early since he won twice around Chepstow back in 2021 and decent ground on the day will suit him more than the soft-ground sloggers.
2022 Welsh Grand National Tip 2 - Fortescue
At a much longer price, I'll take a punt on FORTESCUE, who ran in last year's Grand National, where he unseated Hugh Nugent when labouring four fences from home.
Henry Daly's eight-year-old, who beat Fiddlerontheroof in a Listed Handicap off just a two-pound lower mark last season, was given a spin in a novice hurdle to start his campaign. Daly then sent his star back to Aintree for the Becher Chase last month, where Fortescue stayed on from miles off the pace to finish a decent fourth in the end.
Fortescue has run very well around this chase track before, finishing a close second behind Lamanver Pippin on his second chase start back in 2019. Henry Daly is enjoying the best start he's ever made to a National Hunt season and Nugent, who gets on with Fortescue brilliantly, will take a valuable three pounds off his mount's back.
Verdict
Ask Me Early is our best bet in the 2022 Welsh Grand National. We're also backing Fortescue at a much longer price.
Ask Me Early
Each-Way
@8/1 - 10 Units
50% back up to £25
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Fortescue
Each-Way
@25/1 - 5 Units
£30 Free Bet
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